Are autonomous freight trucks just a few years away from true commercial operation? Or is the horizon much longer than that, stretching out perhaps decades over safety concerns and how to build regulations?
Depends on whom you talk to.
Supply Chain Digest Says...
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| It may also take a long time just to get regulations developed – difficult in a rapidly advancing technology area, and with safety the overriding concern. |
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Big money investors, especially private equity firms, have poured billions into the sector – and presumably weren’t expecting to wait more than 10 years to get a return on their investment.
Now, some autonomous trucking start-ups have tapped public markets. Four autonomous trucking firms together valued at about $26 billion, including TuSimple and Plus, have used IPOs and what are called special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, to raise even more money.
Analysis from the Wall Street Journal found Investors have ponied up about $5.7 billion for shares of TuSimple, Plus, Embark Trucks, and Aurora Innovation in just the past year.
Almost all of these next-gen trucking companies are going first for so-called Level 4 automation, using the popular five level scale developed by SAE International. At level 4, a vehicle is capable of performing all driving functions under certain conditions – but a driver would still sometimes be present.
Only at level 5 is true fully autonomous operation involved without conditions.
"SAE Automated Vehicle Level 4 is the industry’s focus now," said Ross Froat, director of technology and engineering policy at the American Trucking Associations, in late 2020. The level does not require a driver in certain conditios, he noted, adding "Driver controls, like pedals and the steering wheel, may not be installed."
A level 4 system, for example, could involve driverless autonomous operation on line haul routes, with a driver delivering the truck to the start point and end point of each move.
TuSimple, Plus, Embark and Aurora all claim they will have commercial driverless trucking systems in the US in three years or less.
It’s not a surprise that the interest from investors, carriers and private fleets is so high. In the midst of a severe driver shortage and rising driver pay, self-driving trucks could reduce trucking costs by 15-25%, according to analyst David Vernon of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
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The autonomous technology firms think the cost reduction will be even greater. Plus says it can reduce costs by about 38%, and Embark says it will deliver a 45% per-mile cost saving, according to the Wall Street Journal.
 But until they hit the road, nobody knows for sure. Many think it will take many years for the technology to really prove itself.
It may also take a long time just to get regulations developed – difficult in a rapidly advancing technology area, and with safety the overriding concern.
Trucks have to be modestly redesigned to work with the autonomous operations. There remain many questions about insurance and liability – how will insurers know how to price their risk?
Still many are moving ahead as if all this will be happening soon. For example, just last week Waymo, autonomous vehicle unit of the Alphabet Co., said it had signed a deal with Ryder under which Ryder will use its national network of more than 500 facilities to provide fleet maintenance for all Waymo hubs.
Ryder will provide scheduled preventive maintenance services and as-needed repairs for Waymo trucks, as well as roadside service between hubs.
In addition, Waymo said it was building an autonomous truck hub near Dallas, scheduled to open in early 2022.
That news follows an announcement in July between a Ryder and TuSimple under which Ryder fleet maintenance facilities will serve as terminals in TuSimple’s autonomous freight network, with the facilities serving as start and end points for autonomous driving runs.
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