27.6% - That was the year-over-year growth in the Cass Shipments Index in April, a record jump for a single month. The index tracks shipment levels across multiple modes, but is oriented towards full truckload freight.
Supply Chain Digest Says...
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| That means that at a level of 146.5, contract US truckload rates are up 46.5% from 1990 until now, 30 years later. |
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The comparison is off weak 2020 April numbers, as freight really dropped off in that month after the pandemic began in the US in March of that year.
Still, Cass notes that “the pandemic recovery is progressing considerably faster than the recovery from the Great Recession” of 2008 and 2009.
But there were also some signs of weakness. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the index fell 3.1% month over month from March to April, giving back most of the 3.4% increase in March versus February.
The Index was also 1.3% below April 2019.
Cass also produces an index on freight transportation expenditures, which rose 1.1% in April versus March. Given that shipment volumes were a bit softer month to month, the increase was more than explained by higher embedded rates, which rose 3.4% versus March.
Cass produces an “implied” freight rate change analysis by dividing expenditures by shipment levels.
“The embedded rates rose another 3.4% month on month on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, following a 3.5% increase in March consistent with the rising trend of the past five months” Cass wrote, adding that “With much of the annual contract freight market repriced at this point, we expect these increases to begin to slow near-term. However, with strong freight demand and supply constraints on both drivers and trucks, spot and contract rates should continue to rise.” (See graphic below.)
The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, which tracks US contract US truckload rates before fuel surcharges and other accessorials, reached a level of 146.5 in April, a second-straight all-time record, accelerating to a 13.0% year-over-year increase following a 10.1% increase in March. On a month over month basis, the seasonally adjusted index was 2.4% higher than March, in the tenth straight monthly increase. US freight rates simply continue to head higher.
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The index baseline (Index = 100) is from January 1990. That means that at a level of 146.5, contract US truckload rates are up 46.5% from 1990 until now, 30 years later.
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