It’s been tough times in the US freight sector for more than two years, and it was another weak month in May, according to the Cass Freight Report for the month released late last week.
The Cass report showed May shipment volumes in the US were down 3.4%seasonally adjusted versus April. The shipments index also declined 4.0% in the month versus the same period in 2024.
The monthly report from Cass and partner Tim Denoyer of ACT Research is based on data from the billions of dollars of freight bills that Cass pays for its shipper clients.
The index covers several modes but is weighed towards full truckload.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the shipments index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far is trending toward another decline in 2025, Cass says, as carriers navigate the lousy freight environment.
The Expenditures Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, was up a seasonally adjusted 1.2% month-over-month in May, while year-over-year expenditures saw a 0.8% rise, the second consecutive increase after an amazing 28 months of declines.
Cass notes that this index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index (see below).
But Cass says that after the decline in 2024, freight rates are starting in 2025 on track for low- to mid-single-digit increases in 2025.
With seasonally-adjusted shipments up 0.8% month-over-month in May and expenditures dropping 3.4% in the month, it implies a rise in rates of about 4.2%.
Another look at rates comes from the Cass Linehaul Index, which measures US per mile truckload rates before fuel surcharge and other accessorials, and that paints a different picture.
In May, the Linehaul Index fell 0.5% month-over-month. The year-over-year increase slowed to 0.6% in May from 0.9% in April, as modest positive rate momentum in the truckload market stalled.
“Pre-tariff shipping was not enough to tighten the market balance even as seasonality improved in May,” Denoyer said.
In some interesting concluding comments, he adds that “ The effects of tariffs have yet to be fully felt, and although freight rates have started to rise, it is still not enough to offset cost headwinds broadly. The trade war is likely to extend the for-hire freight recession further as higher prices reduce goods affordability and consumers’ real incomes.”
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Each month, Cass nicely summarizes the state of freight, as seen in the graphic below for May:
Source: Cass
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