It’s been tough times in the US freight sector for more than two years, and it was a mostly flat month in April, according to the Cass Freight Report for the month released late last week,
The Cass report showed shipment volumes in the US were up just 0.3% seasonally adjusted versus March. But the shipments index declined 3.6% in the month versus the same period in 2024.
The monthly report from Cass and partner Tim Denoyer of ACT Research is based on data from the billions of dollars of freight bills that Cass pays for its shipper clients.
The index covers several modes but is weighed towards full truckload.
After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the shipments index declined 5.5% in 2023 and 4.1% in 2024, and so far is trending toward another decline in 2025, Cass says.
The Expenditures Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, was up a seasonally adjusted 2.2 % month-over-month in April, while year-over-year expenditures saw a 1.2% rise, the first increase in an amazing 28 months.
But Cass says that after the decline in 2024, freight rates are starting in 2025 on track for low- to mid-single-digit increases in 2025.
With seasonally-adjusted shipments up 0.3% month-over-month in April, and expenditures up more, rising 2.2% in the month, it implies a rise in rates of about 2%.
Another look at rates comes from the Cass Linehaul Index, which measures US per mile truckload rates before fuel surcharge and other accessorials, and that paints a different picture.
In April, the Linehaul Index rose 0.5% month-over-month. The year-over-year increase slowed to 0.9% in April from 1.5% in March, “as rate momentum in the truckload market stalled as pre-tariff shipping was not enough to tighten the market balance in a seasonally soft April,” Denoyersaid.
“This index fell 10% in 2023 and another 3% in 2024. Where it will go in 2025 is a big question,” Denoyer added.
In some interesting concluding comments, he adds that “It’s been 40 months since the first y/y decline in shipments this cycle, and as the freight market downturn wears on, fleets are not particularly well-positioned to weather an even longer storm. So, it’s significant that expenditures turned positive for the first time in 28 months, but we wouldn’t suggest it’ll be smooth sailing from here.”
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Each month, Cass nicely summarizes the state of freight, as seen in the graphic below for April:
Source: Cass
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