Since the pandemic and really before, the US market has been on a tear, with crazy low vacancy rates and soaring lease costs.

But it appears there is a return to the mean.

According to new data from real estate firm Cushman & Wakefield, after reaching just 2.8% nationally in Q2 2022, vacancy rates have been climbing ever since, especially in the last few quarters, reaching 5.2% in Q4 2023. See graphic below.

Source: Wall Street Journal

But so far rates haven’t followed suit. Cushman & Wakefield also found that lease costs for warehouse space rose 10% in Q4 year-over-year to $9.79 per square foot.

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