The US Purchasing Managers Index came out for December last week from the Institute for Supply Management.
As always, a score over 50 indicates US manufacturing contraction, while below 50 means contraction.
The PMI scores over the past year paint a worrisome economic picture, as seen below:
Source: ISM
As can be seen, the PMI has moved lower for the past seven months, if you include the flat change in August.
The index finally fell below 50 and intro contraction in November, with December dropping even more, to 48.4.
Will 2023 see a turn to recession? The PMI is signaling Yes.
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