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Supply Chain Graphic of the Week: US Truckload Rates Finally Slowing Down


Cass Analyst Says Rates to be Flat or Even Negative for Full Year


May 24, 2019


At long last, US truckload rates are flattening, after a brutal 2018 for shippers, and are expected to stay that was for the rest of this year.


As seen in the graphic below showing the Case Linehaul Index, which measures US per mile truckload rates before fuel surcharges and other accessorials, rates have actually been trending down in 2019, after soaring really since mid-2017, as shippers know all tool well.



Rates are still up versus prior year, but have been trending down month over month in 2019.


Driving that in part is a steep fall in US spot rates, which are now about 30% lower than contract rates, indicating supply far exceeds demand.


What's more, Donald Broughton, a transportation analyst who works with Cass, lowered his 2019 rate forecast.


“After starting the year with a 2% to 5% range, in March we lowered it to a 1% to 3% range, and are now predicting a range of -2% to 1%,” Broughton says.


Finally, some good news for shippers.


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