Earlier this week, SCDiget publshed an article on the news tha MAPI - The Manufacturing Allliance is now forecasting that at long last, the US will surpass peak 2007 manufacturing output levels in April, 2019, some 12 years later. (See MAPI Projects US will Finally Surpass Peak 2007 Manufacturing Output – in 2019.)
That long comeback is based on the monthly manufacturing output levels reported by the US Federal Reserve.
Part of the MAPI report was a graphic showing year over year growth in US manufacturing output since 1996, as shown below.
As can be seen, there was a strong jump in production in the first year (2010) after the Great Recession, after which output trended down to a 1% range or so (and flat in 2016) over the past 5 years. No wonder the US is not back to previous peak levels.
But MAPI sees some stronger growth - though not exactly robust - coming over the next 4 years. In fact, MAPI says that its current forecast represents a measurable jump from its November 2017 outlook, and actually represents a near doubling of its projection for average US manufacturing growth for the 2018-2021 period, from 1.5% to a pretty decent 2.8%.
So if MAPI's forecast holds true, by some time in relatively early 2019 we will get back to and then exceed production levels in 2007 - about a dozen years later.
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