Monday of course marks the annual Labor Day holiday both here and in Canada. Starting in 2011, I have written a column on the state of the labor supply chain in conjunction with this event. It was popular enough that I have continued in each year since. It's a lot of work, but well worth it.
It has been a mediocre year for labor, with worker shortages declining, easing some pressure on supply chains. and reducing labor's recent clout and momentum - but starting from a low base – and now dealing with a much less friendly administration with Trump versus Biden before him (who really did much less for labor than I expected.
The percent of total US workers that are union members was 9.9% in 2024, about same as in 2023, according to the most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. That meant there were 14.3 million US workers of all types that were unionized, again about the same as 2023.
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| The issue for labor is still not yet "stop the robots," but it will be soon enough. |
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Compare that to the 17.7 million union members in 1983, when the total US labor force was much smaller.
As many of you know, US unionization membership is now dominated by public sector workers such as police and teachers.
Unionization rates nationally in the public sector were at 32.2% in 2024, down a little from 32.5% in 2023. But that is about five times greater than the rate of just 5.9% in the private sector, about the same share as seen in 2023.
All this of course continues the powerful long-term trend of a steady union decline since the Labor Department started reporting on it in 1983, when overall unionization was at 20.1% and 16.8% in the private sector. Those numbers themselves were well down from previous decades before this metric was officially tracked by the government.
I will note that part of decline in private sector unionization rates is due to the loss of millions of US manufacturing jobs since 1983, as manufacturing is clearly more organized than the service sector, but that is far from the only factor. Unions have clearly lost appeal to many, especially in the South, where many new manufacturing factories have been headed for more than two decades.
There are also huge differences between states. North Carolina and South (2.4% and 2.7% respectively) had the lowest unionization rates in 2024. The next lowest rate was in South Dakota (2.8%). Ten states had union rates below 5% in 2024, down one from 2023. Two states also saw union rates of more than 20% in 2024: Hawaii (26.5%) and New York (20.6%).
The percent of US manufacturing workers that are union members fell a bit to 7.8% last year, from 7.9% in 2023. But that is still way down from 8.5% in 2020.
Ponder that - about just 1 in 13 US manufacturing workers are unionized today, versus 17.5% in 1994. According to unionstats.com, 38% of private sector manufacturing workers were in unions as recently as 1973.
Don't think this downward union trend is only a US phenomenon. Unionization rates in labor-loving Sweden, for example, have fallen from about 95% in the mid-1990s to around 68% today. Many other countries mirror US unionization rates more closely. Unionization in France - generally considered very supportive of labor -has fallen to just under 10% of all workers, and just 8z`% in the private sector. Union membership is higher in the UK, at about 22%, but that's down from more like 40% in the mid-1990s.
 In July, there were about 8.8 million non-supervisory manufacturing workers in the US, down a little from 8.9 million a year ago. That is well up from the bottom of the recession in 2009, when we fell to about 8 million shop floor workers, meaning we've added about 800,000 manufacturing jobs since then - not a lot in 15 years, but better than a decline. In 2004, there were just over 10 million factory floor workers - we're down about 1.2 million positions from that level, and much more from the 1990s.
According to the BLS, the average hourly wage for shop floor manufacturing workers was $28.96 in July, up from $27.90 in July 2024, for a gain of 3.7%.
That wage is also up from the $19.94 per hour in July 2015, or a rise of 45.2% over 10 years. That's a cumulative average annual growth rate of 3.8%. So wages have risen decently, a little above inflation, without considering rising costs to get health insurance.
Meanwhile, there has been very steady growth in warehouse jobs in the past decade+, though they represent just a tiny fraction of manufacturing positions. There are now about 1.58 million non-supervisory warehouse workers in the US (as of July), surprisingly down from 1.62 million in 2024 .
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The number is substantially higher than the 737,000 warehouse workers in 2015, meaning a rise of 114% over 10 years - but even with that growth they only represent about 17.9% of manufacturing floor jobs - though that percentage is rising. Warehouse jobs were 13.9% of manufacturing workers in June 2020. I will note some jobs at plant warehouses are counted as manufacturing positions.
In terms of wages, average non-supervisory pay for warehouse workers was $24.81 per hour in June, versus $22.99 in June 2023 - a rise of 7.9% in two years. However, the average warehouse wage is about 15% less than the average pay in manufacturing.
Pay for warehouse workers was at $15.53 in June 2015, meaning DC wages have risen 59% over the past 10 years. That's an annualized rate of 4.8%, a percentage point more than the growth in manufacturing wages, the result of much improved pay hikes in recent years for warehouse workers. That 1% more compounded over time is a big deal.
There's a lot more, but I am well out of space. Part 2 next week.
The issue for labor is still not yet "stop the robots," but it will be soon enough.
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