Two weeks ago, we summarized select predictions for 2025 from the analysts at Gartner related to supply chain execution technologies. (See Supply Chain Guru Predictions for 2025.
This week, we’re back with highlights from another set of predictions for the year ahead on supply chain strategy.
That should be interesting, so let’s take a look, starting with this one from analysts Simon Bailey and Christopher Sladdin: By 2027, 30% of large global supply chains will adopt the Customer Effort Score (CES), as CSCOs play a more leading role in driving profitable growth.
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My first reaction to this is that what I have read is that in 2025 most companies’ climate rhetoric is well behind the reality.
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First, what is Customer Effort Score? I must confess it is outside of my expertise. CES, as the name implies, is a metric that measures how easy it is for customers to use a company's products or services.
Times will be changing for many CSCOs soon, Garner says.
“Supply chain leaders should be prepared for a shift in how their success is measured by the CEO and other C-suite executives,” Gartner opines, adding that CSCOs should “expect to be asked to communicate your impact on both growth and cost management, and how lower-effort experiences (as measured by the CES) support these objectives.”
As a result, Gartner says that emphasizing the supply chain’s ability to deliver on CES will be key to securing the buy-in and resources required for transformative supply chain initiatives.
So what should CSCOs do in the face of this change in the job? Among a number of recommendations from Bailey and Sladdin, I liked this one: Introduce the CES, and work to correlate the metric with top-level outcomes, such as growth and cost.
Also this: CSCOs should align supply chain strategies with the commercial segmentation of key customers by developing “customer personas” and associated customer journey maps to identify pain points, ensuring that actions are targeted to unlock the greatest value.
That all sounds fairly difficult to me.
Next up: Gartner analysts Pierfrancesco Manenti and Noha Tohamy predict that by 2028, 15% of day-to-day supply chain decisions will be made autonomously by AI agents, freeing up humans to focus more on critical decisions.
My first reaction is I don’t generally buy the notion that those whose job is impacted by AI will be “freed up” to do higher value functions. Most, in my opinion, will eventually just be let go, else where does the AI investment ROI come from?
That side comment out of the way, Gartner notes that its research finds that 84% of supply chain organizations are realizing, or planning to realize, AI and machine learning (ML) investments to re-engineer core supply chain tasks during the next three to five years.
I also say that of course, over the next few years, humans will continue to review some decisions - the question is what share?
Gartner also says that emerging, so-called “agentic AI” technologies are designed to operate autonomously and independently from humans, making decisions and acting based on understanding the environment, goals and constraints. (More on this technology soon from SCDigest.)
So what to make of this prediction? I am not quite sure. But maybe some of the recommendations will clear things up.
Gartner offers this: CSCOs should initially choose low risk use cases to experiment with full automation, as the technology matures. High-risk, high-impact use cases need more proven AI technologies and will require human intervention in deployment during the next three to five years.
It’s hard to disagree with that.
 In terms of CSCOs and their people, Gartner recommends that CSCOs “must invest in their employees’ mindset to instill a culture of prompt decision-making to drive swift actions. They should prioritize upskilling their workforce in AI and data analytics, fostering a culture that embraces data- and outcome-driven decision making and effectively collaborates with AI technologies.”
My view: this could involve a major cultural change for many companies, and fast decision-making may not be for all. And what does “collaborating with AI technologies” really mean?
We’ll all find out soon enough.
Finally, and my third review out of the five supply chain predictions offered by Gartner analysts Marta Munoz and again Simon Bailey predict that by 2030, 60% of enterprises will hit their interim GHG emissions reduction targets, enabled by strong supply chain ownership and ecosystem partnerships.
My first reaction to this is that what I have read is that in 2025 most companies’ climate rhetoric is well behind the reality.
Gartner seems to agree, noting that “companies originally setting absolute emissions reduction goals - a set amount of reduction, rather than a relative per unit production goal - did not sufficiently consider the impacts of growth and the cost of emission reductions. They may also have relied on incorrect assumptions about the rate of market decarbonization.”
Gartner also finds that the challenging Scope 3 emissions target setting has often been limited to Tier 1 suppliers). This means companies often relied on supplier and other partner GHG emissions reduction to supposedly meet their emissions numbers, “instead of looking for broader collaborations across the entire ecosystem.”
Gartner points out that in recent months, several organizations have publicly announced a recalibration of their original targets, including BP, Crocs, and Morgan Stanley. Others have removed chief sustainability officers from their executive committees, and more will follow suit in the coming years, diverting their focus from sustainability.
“Although companies have delivered on their Scope 1 and Scope 2 goals relatively quickly, Scope 3 targets demand broader, more complex initiatives,” Gartner notes.
Gartner also says that “A bottom-up approach to establishing new, revised targets will become standard practice. This will necessitate cost-benefit analyses involving cross-functional teams, such as product development, engineering, operations and supply chain, as well as external resources, such as investors and suppliers.”
Given all that, Gartner recommends that companies assess existing targets and conduct a feasibility analysis for the key initiatives driving emissions reductions,” noting that “Targeted recalibration can bring more credibility among stakeholders, if backed by more informed, bottom-up implementations.”
It also suggests that companies “focus on building supplier trust by explaining the associated benefits of a collaborative approach and sharing lessons that facilitate supplier sustainability journeys.”
So there you have it, a second look at 2025 supply chain predictions from the fine analysts at Gartner. Hope you enjoyed it.
What is your reaction to these Gartner predicts? Let us know your thoughts at the Feedback section below.
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