Monday of course marks the annual Labor Day holiday both here and in Canada. Starting in 2011, I have written a column on the state of the labor supply chain in conjunction with this event. It was popular enough that I have continued in each year since. It's a lot of work, but well worth it.
It has been a decent past year for labor in some ways, with worker shortages still generally the case, pressuring supply chains, giving labor some clout and momentum - but starting from a low base. Still, this is naturally (and finally) pushing blue collar wages higher, as we'll see below- but not enough for most to keep up with inflation.
The percent of total US workers that are union members was 10.0% in 2021, to me surprisingly down from 2022's 10.1% and 10.8% in 2020 - according to the most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. I say surprising because conditions seemed to be in Labor's favor, and there is strong backing in the Biden administration.
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The percent of total US workers that are union members was 10.0% in 2021, to me surprisingly down from 2022's 10.1% and 10.8% in 2020 - according to the most recent data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. I say surprising because conditions seemed to be in Labor's favor, and there is strong backing in the Biden administration.
As many of you know, US unionization membership is now dominated by public sector workers such as police and teachers.
Unionization rates nationally in the public sector were at 32.5% in 2023, down from 33.1%, in 2022, But that is about five times greater than the rate of just 6.0% in the private sector, the same share as seen in 2022.
All this of course continues the powerful long-term trend of a steady union decline since the Labor Department started reporting on it in 1983, when overall unionization was at 20.1% and 16.8% in the private sector. Those numbers themselves were well down from previous decades before this metric was officially tracked by the government.
I will note part of that decline in private sector unionization rates is due to the loss of millions of US manufacturing jobs since 1983, as manufacturing is clearly more organized than the service sector, but that is far from the only factor. Unions have clearly lost appeal to many, especially in the South, where many new manufacturing factories have been headed for more than two decades.
Together, there were 14.4 million private and public sector employees in a union in 2023, up from 14.3 million in 2022. While union jobs rose 0.3% last year, overall jobs were up 1.7%, so the percent of the workforce in unions declined again a bit.
And compare that to the 17.7 million union members in 1983, when the total US labor force was much smaller.
There are also huge differences between states. South and North Carolina (2.3% and 2.7% respectively) had the lowest unionization rates in 2023. The next lowest rate was in South Dakota (3.6%). Eleven states had union rates below 5% in 2023, the same as 2022. Two states saw union rates of more than 20% in 2023: Hawaii (24.1%) and New York (20.6%).
The percent of US manufacturing workers that are union members rose a bit to 8.0% last year, from 7.8% in 2022. But that is still way down from 8.5% in 2020.
Ponder that - about just 1 in 13 US manufacturing workers are unionized today, versus 17.5% in 1994. According to unionstats.com, 38% of private sector manufacturing workers were in unions as recently as 1973.
Don't think this downward union trend is only a US phenomenon. Unionization rates in labor-loving Sweden, for example, have fallen from about 95% in the mid-1990s to around 68% today. Many other countries mirror US unionization rates more closely. Unionization in France - generally considered very supportive of labor -has fallen to just under 8% of all workers, and just 5% in the private sector. Union membership is higher in the UK, at about 23%, but that's down from more like 40% in the mid-1990s.
In July, there were about 9.1 million non-supervisory manufacturing workers in the US, up from 8.9 million a year ago. That is well up from the bottom of the recession in 2009, when we fell to about 8 million shop floor workers, meaning we've added about 1.1 million manufacturing jobs since then - not a lot in 14 years, but better than a decline. In 2004, there were just over 10 million factory floor workers - we're down about 900,000 positions from that level, and much more from the 1990s.
According to the BLS, the average hourly wage for shop floor manufacturing workers was $27.92 in July, up from $26.36 in July 2023, for a gain of 5.9%. Pretty good.
That wage is also up from the $19.59 per hour in July 2014, or a rise of 42.5% over 10 years. That's a cumulative average annual growth rate of 3.6%. So wages have risen decently, a little above inflation, without considering rising costs to get health insurance.
 Meanwhile, there has been very steady growth in warehouse jobs in the past decade, though they represent just a tiny fraction of manufacturing positions. There are now about 1.55 million non-supervisory warehouse workers in the US (as of July), basically flat with 1.57 million in 2023, up from 8.3% from 1.43 million in July 2021.
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The number is substantially higher than the 653,000 warehouse workers in 2014, meaning a rise of 138% over 10 years - but even with that growth they only represent about 17.5% of manufacturing floor jobs – though that percentage is rising. Warehouse jobs were 13.9% of manufacturing workers in June 2020. I will note some jobs at plant warehouses are counted as manufacturing positions.
In terms of wages, average non-supervisory pay for warehouse workers was $24.0 per hour in June, versus $21.54 in June 2022 - a rise of 11% in two years. However, the average warehouse wage is about 14% less than the average pay in manufacturing.
Pay for warehouse workers was at $15.42 in June 2024, meaning DC wages have risen 55% over the past 10 years– and almost all of that starting in 2017. That's an annualized rate of 4.5%, almost a percentage point more than the growth in manufacturing wages, the result of much improved pay hikes in recent years for warehouse workers. That 1% more compounded over time is a big deal.
Switching gears, Labor strikes, once such a commonplace event, have almost disappeared, at least outside the teacher ranks.
Last year, there were33 major work stoppages (involving more than 1,000 workers) in the US, about the same as the up from 22 in 2022, according to the BLS. But that compares with 69 in 1986, 276 in 1976 - and 470 in 1952.
87% of workers involved in these strikes were from service industries (teachers, healthcare). Manufacturing strikes accounted for just 13% of employees idled by major strikes last year, though that was up from only 2% the previous year.
There's a lot more, but I am well out of space. Part 2 next week.
The issue for labor is still not yet "stop the robots," but it will be soon enough.
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