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July 18, 2025

 

Grant Sernick
SVP Sales & Marketing

3rdwave

Grant Sernick is the Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing at 3rdwave, a software platform purpose-built to simplify the operational chaos of international supply chains. With over 20 years of experience across international transportation, import operations, and trade compliance, Grant helps importers modernize how they manage shipments, comply with customs regulations, and control landed costs.

A recognized expert in customs compliance, duty mitigation strategies, and regulatory data, Grant works at the intersection of trade regulations and operational execution—areas where most ERP and TMS systems fall short. At 3rdwave, he’s been instrumental in developing tools that allow companies to move beyond spreadsheets and siloed systems to achieve audit-ready compliance, shipment-level visibility, and SKU-level cost accuracy.

Grant is also the author of Thinking Out Loud, a widely read LinkedIn newsletter that challenges conventional thinking in logistics tech and global trade. His writing regularly explores the structural flaws in how companies manage international transportation, and what supply chain leaders must do to adapt to today’s environment of regulatory scrutiny, geopolitical risk, and rising customer expectations.


 

Navigation vs. Visibility: Why the Modern Supply Chain Needs More Than Just Sight


The Limits of Visibility

In the world of supply chain management, few words have been repeated more over the past decade than "visibility." Visibility was supposed to be the answer to late shipments, inventory surprises, and dissatisfied customers. If only we could see everything, we could fix anything.

But visibility is no longer enough.

Visibility tells you where something is. Navigation tells you what to do about it.

A GPS ping or milestone update might confirm that your container is sitting at the port. But what does that mean? Is it early? Late? Blocking a warehouse appointment? At risk of demurrage? Without context, visibility is like staring at a blinking dot on a map. It's information without intelligence.

The Role of Navigation

To understand the difference, consider the evolution of digital mapping. GPS technology has existed since the 1980s. Digital maps emerged in the 1990s. But it wasn't until tools like Google Maps and Waze combined:

  • Real-time positioning (where you are),
  • Digital context (roads, stops, constraints), and
  • Predictive routing (what to do next)

that the true explosion of value occurred.

These systems didn’t just show location. They helped you plan a route, anticipate traffic, get alerted to hazards (construction, roadblocks, speed traps), and even adapt plans on the fly (need fuel? hungry? tired?).

That's the shift supply chains now require: moving from passive observation to active navigation.

Why Navigation Matters in Supply Chains

Today’s supply chains are vast, complex, and executed by a network of outsourced partners. Despite this external execution, the responsibility for performance remains internal. The success or failure of every shipment ultimately reflects on the company managing the order.

Every third-party service provider—from the factory to the warehouse—is shadowed by an internal function responsible for overseeing their performance. Purchasing or production planning teams are responsible for managing the factory. Logistics planning teams handle the consolidator. Transportation teams oversee the forwarders and carriers. Trade compliance supports customs brokers. Customer service or inbound teams track final-mile performance. Warehouse operations prepare for inbound deliveries.
“Are we going to miss our customer promise?”

Visibility into where things are doesn’t guarantee that these internal roles are able to do their jobs effectively. For that, they need context: a clear understanding of what should be happening, when, and whether anything is off plan.

Navigation, then, becomes essential. It brings clarity to who is responsible for each segment of execution. It delivers alerts not just when something is delayed, but when that delay impacts a downstream dependency. It enables intelligent, timely action instead of reactive scrambling.

Put another way: navigation is the bridge between external execution and internal accountability. It provides a shared operational context that allows teams to manage not just movement, but outcomes.

What Navigation Requires

True navigation in supply chain execution requires several key components:

  1. A Digital Map of the Shipment Journey
    A complete model of the physical shipment journey, structured as nodes and vectors — ports, rail terminals, warehouses, inland depots — each with planned durations and expected transitions.
  2. Status Updates and Milestone Feeds
    Real-time updates from external parties — forwarders, carriers, brokers, consolidators. The system must interpret these events in context, understanding what each update means for the larger execution plan.
  3. Expectation Modeling
    Milestone events alone are insufficient. The system must incorporate required, promised, and notified dates to model how the shipment was planned and committed. This includes both operational expectations and service-level commitments.
  4. Enterprise Demands and Constraints
    Navigation must be rooted in the actual requirements of the business: PO delivery dates, inventory replenishment needs, production schedules, and customer SLAs. It must also incorporate internal constraints such as budgetary caps, dock availability, labor capacity, and compliance windows. Without grounding in these internal realities, the system can’t meaningfully assess risk or success.
  5. Internal Role Mapping
    Every external partner is paired with an internal function that oversees their performance. Navigation ties each event or handoff to the responsible internal actor — not just to monitor, but to intervene when required.
  6. Exception Management and Alerts
    Deviations from the plan must generate smart alerts — not just warnings that something is late, but contextualized messages to the right person explaining what happened, why it matters, and what needs to be done.
  7. Cost Implication Tracking
    Execution impacts cost. Navigation must associate actions and delays with financial consequences: demurrage, detention, storage, penalty fees, missed rebates. Financial risk must be tied to the movement of goods.
  8. Dual-Perspective Modeling: Operational vs. Contractual
    This is where most systems fall short. The operational perspective — a full breakdown of movements across all transportation legs — is required for execution, exception management, and milestone tracking. But the contractual perspective — how the freight was purchased (e.g., port-to-door, port-to-port, etc.) — is equally critical, especially for financial reconciliation. Systems that model only one perspective cannot support proper freight audit, cost allocation, or accountability. Navigation requires both views, harmonized within a single framework.

Why Visibility Alone Falls Short

Most visibility platforms stop at location. They don’t model expectations. They don’t understand responsibility. They don’t reflect enterprise needs. And they don’t tie movement to operational or financial risk.

That’s why visibility-only solutions feel flat. They may tell you something is late, but not what that means, why it happened, or who should fix it.

They’re like GPS without a map. Or a map without directions. Or directions without alerts.

In contrast, navigation systems expect things to go wrong — and are designed to adapt.

The Future of Execution Is Navigation

As global logistics becomes more volatile, and pressure increases on cost, service, and agility, the ability to simply observe your supply chain is no longer enough. You need to navigate it.

That means building systems that reflect reality, understand process, assign accountability, model internal requirements, and actively assist your team in making decisions.

Visibility lets you watch.

Navigation helps you move.

And movement — timely, cost-effective, customer-focused movement — is the true measure of supply chain performance.

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