The usual monthly freight reports from the American Trucking Associations and Cass Information Systems have been released in the past week, showing continued softness in volumes and rates for shippers.
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On a year-over-year basis, the index showed a 5.9% decline versus the same month in 2024, which was the narrowest in the past year.
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First, the ATA’s Freight Tonnage Index for January fell 3.5% month-over-month. The weak January score comes after a small rise of 1.2% in December.
Compared with January 2023, the seasonally adjusted index fell 4.7%, which was the eleventh straight year-over-year decrease. In December, the index was down 0.8% from a year earlier.
“January’s data was a snap back to reality for anyone thinking the freight market was about to turn the corner,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello, noting that “Bad winter weather in January likely hurt volumes, not to mention sharp drops in a number of drivers of tonnage including retail sales, housing starts and manufacturing output.”
With the January decline, the ATA index now stands at 111, versus the baseline year of 2015, when the index = 100.
That means trucking rates are up just 11% now some nine years later.
We next turn to the monthly report for January from Cass and partner Tim Denoyer of ACT Research, which is based on data from the billions of dollars of freight bills that Cass pays for its shipper clients.
The Cass Shipments Index, which covers several modes but is weighted towards full truckload, was basically flat month-over month in seasonally adjusted terms, but was down 7.6% versus January 2023 after an 7.2% year-over-year decline in November.
In terms of rates, the Cass Linehaul Index, which measures US per mile truckload rates before fuel surcharge and other accessorials, was down a modest 06% in January versus December.
On a year-over-year basis, the index showed a 5.9% decline versus the same month in 2024, which was the narrowest in the past year.
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At a level of 140, it means US truckload rates are up 40% from the baseline month of January 2010.
The report notes that “While trucking demand remains soft overall, rising import and intermodal trends are key leading indicators of a recovery in trucking this year. Global ocean shipping disruptions will likely add to U.S. freight movements in 2024 as shippers seek to buffer safety stocks.”
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