There are an increasing number of economists saying that after what will turn out to be a brutal Q2, US and global economic recovery may be right around the proverbial bend. For example, leading economists from both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley said there were signs the global economy had bottomed. They also predicted strong growth to come in Q3 and Q4.

Then this week, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said "I think we are at the bottom and headed up."

Let's assume they are right. The next question then becomes: what will the recovery actually look like?

No surprise, there are many different predictions and models. The result is a sort of "alphabet soup" of different economy trajectories, as nicely summarized by the Wall Street Journal, in the graphic below from this week:

The full Wall Street Journal article says that a growing number of economists now expect a "swoosh" recovery.

What is that? "Named after the Nike logo, it predicts a large drop followed by a painfully slow recovery, with many Western economies, including the US and Europe, not back to 2019 levels of output until late next year - or beyond."

Take your pick,

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