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Supply Chain Graphic of the Week: The Six Most Likely Scenarios for Autonomous Trucks

Highway Exit-to-Exit Automation Tops the List, though Platooning has Few Barriers


Sept. 20, 2018

A couple of weeks ago, we reported on new research from Steve Viscelli,with the headline news his estimate that the US will lose almost 300,000 long haul truck driver jobs over 25 years as the result of autonomous trucks - even if some (lower paid) local delivery driver jobs actually ctincrease. (See Will or Will not Autonomous Trucks Eliminate Huge Numbers of Truck Driver Jobs?)


Viscell is a sociologist and a fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Robert A. Fox Leadership Program, andalso a senior fellow at its Kleinman Center for Energy Policy.He made a name for himself in logistics circles in 2016, when he authored a book titled "The Big Rig: Trucking and the Decline of the American Dream," in which he said it should be no surprise there is a truck driver shortage due to the low pay and terrible lifesyle.


His new research is an outstanding piece of work. It include's Viscelli's take on the six most likely operating scenarious for driverless trucks, as seen in the graphic below:



Source: Steve Viscelli


Viscelli says that "Absent significant changes in the policy or economic context, this report concludes that highway exit-to-exit automation is the most likely scenario to be widely adopted in the future. However, human-led platoons represent a model that has fewer technological challenges, a strong economic case, and better jobs for long-distance drivers."


Look for our interview with Viscelli on his excellent research on next week's Supply Chain Video News.


Any Feedback on our Supply Chain Graphic of the Week? Let us know your thoughts at the Feedback section below.


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