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Supply Chain Graphic of the Week: When will Peak Oil Demand be Reached?


New OPEC Report Says Consumption will Peak in Either 2040 or 2030, Depending on Electric Car Adoption

Nov. 9, 2017
SCDigest Editorial Staff

It's amazing - it was not long ago the concern was about Peak Oil production, the year the world just could not generate any more increases in oil output, which would lead to soaring prices for consumer gasoline, diesel fuel, plastics feedstocks and much more.

Rather quickly, that scenario has been turned on its head, with the focus now on Peak Oil demand - the year global consumption will peak, to fall inevitably beyond that, the result of increased energy efficiency, alternative fuels, electric cars and other developments.


This is really quite a sea change, with profound impacts on geo-politics, societal trends, the supply chain and more.


Numerous groups have attempted to forecast that peak in oil demand, including the countries of OPEC, as they published in a new report this week.


As shown in the graphic below, from based on the reports data, under OPEC's most likely scenario, oil demand will max out about year 2040. But if electric cars are adopted at a very fast rate, that peak could be reached as early as 2030 - not much more than a decade away.




Of course, OPEC isn't exactly a neutral observer. Royal Dutch Shell and Norway’s Statoil SA predict demand could reach its high as soon as 2025.


Whatever the year, it's coming - and the world will change dramaticallty as a result.


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