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Supply Chain Graphic of the Week: MAPI Forecast for US Manufacturing Growth


US Won't be Losing Ground - but Won't be Seeing a Resurgence Either

April 19, 2017
SCDigest Editorial Staff

Many are indeed hoping for a revilization of US manufacturing, which of course was also a key campaign theme of President Trump.

For many reasons, engineering a resurgence in US production won't be easy, even though there are several trends that are positive for more manufacturing being done domestically. (See Made in USA is Real Trend, but Returning Production to US Shores is not Easy for Many.)


With that context, the analysts over at MAPI -  The Manufacturing Alliance have recently released a forecast for growth in US manufacturing output both overall and for key sectors thorugh 2020, as shown in the graphic below.



How you look at this data is sort of like the glass half empty/half full perspective question. Overall manufacturing growth of 1.2%, 2.6%, and 1.4% in 2017, 2018 and 2019, respectively, isn't exactly gang busters - but much better than zero growth seen in 2016 and the less than 1% annual growth since 2012.


Some sectors, such as chemicals, computers and electroncs, and food are projected for better than average growth - but these sectors would really just be continuing on-going growth trends. We will note the growth in computers and electronics is far more from the electronics side than from computer manufacturing.


Some sectors hit hard by offshore, such as apparel and textiles,are forecast for negative growth, but the also hard hit furnture industry is predicted to actually see US production head upward starting in 2018. Still, the level of US furniture output is far below peak levels in the 1990s, by almost half.


SCDigest would say that to the extent this forecast proves accurate, overall the US will not be losing ground in the next few years - but will not exactly be seing a resurgence either.


Any Feedback on our Supply Chain Graphic of the Week? Let us know your thoughts at the Feedback section below.


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