The ability of ocean container carriers to hit expected arrival dates started heading lower in Q3 2020, and has since fallen into record low territory.
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Compared to February 2020, schedule reliability was 30.0 percentage points lower year-over year. |
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A variety of factors are in play, notably port congestions, in causing the weak on-time performance.
As can seen in the chart below from the analysts at Sea-Intelligence, in July 2020, schedule adherence across the globe was around 70%, almost exactly the same as in July of 2019, though somewhat lower than was seen in 2018.
But from there performance headed south, falling to just 45% by the end of 2020, and just 35% in January, as the global shipping crisis perhaps reached its peak. (See New York Times on Global Shipping Chaos.)
That performance finally stabilized in February, Sea-Intelligence reported last week, with the number basically flat with January's level.
But Sea-Intelligence notes that "it is still the lowest recorded figure for any February, and now the seventh consecutive month that schedule reliability has been the lowest for that respective month."
Compared to February 2020, schedule reliability was 30.0 percentage points lower year-over year, with this being the seventh consecutive month that there has been a double-digit year-over-year decline.
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But the schedule reliability is a binary metric – a ship arrived at port on time or it did not. How long the schedule misses are is another matter.
Sea-Intelligence tracks that too.
As seen in the graphic below, the average delay for LATE vessel arrivals, has been on an increasing trend for six months, increasing in February 2021 to 6.76 days, which is the highest recorded average delay ever.
Sea-Intelligence also reports that n February 2021, Maersk Line was the most reliable carrier with 44.2% schedule adherence.
The numbers aren't going to get any better any time soon. Sea-Intelligence concludes by noting that "With continued port congestion, and now with the Suez Canal blockage, we will likely continue to see high delays in March 2021."
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