From SCDigest's On-Target E-Magazine

- Sept. 15, 2014 -

Supply Chain News: US Manufacturing Revival Still Hard to Find in the Data, as Imports Continue to Rise

Import Levels are Up Almost Across the Board; US Manufacturing Rival will be Real when Numbers Show It

SCDigest Editorial Staff

While anecdotal evidence of a resurgence in US manufacturing continues to come in, unfortunately it is not easy to find support for that trend yet in the numbers, though the fact that US manufacturing output finally surpassed peak 2007 levels in July is certainly a good sign. (See US Manufacturing Output at Last Makes it Back to Pre-Recession Levels.)

SCDigest Says: We wonder how many US consumers know that imports of meat products are up 20.7% this year, and that fish imports have risen 18%. What Do You Say?   Click Here to Send Us Your Comments Click Here to See Reader Feedback

One way to look at US manufacturing progress is through changes in import levels of manufactured and other goods, and here, signs of a manufacturing revival in the US are hard to find.

Through July of 2014, imports of goods into the US are up about $45 billion to some $1.36 trillion, an increase of about 3.4% over the same period in 2013. Obviously, in the event of a resurgence in US manufacturing, reshoring, etc., you would expect import levels to decline as a result, as more goods made here means less need for offshore imports.

Interestingly, total imports of goods in July 2013 were actually down about 1.2% versus 2012.

But that 2014 number would be a bit worse if not for the sharp rise in US energy production, mostly from fracking technology. That surge in energy production led to a decline in imports of crude oil of about $8.2 billion so far this year, and a decline of more than $3 billion in other petroleum-related products, both of which are included in the overall imported goods numbers.

The reduction in energy imports was also a big factor in the decline in imports through July in 2013 versus the previous year.

The Census Bureau organizes imported goods into five categories. Under each category is a lot of detail relative to imports of specific classes of goods and commodities, from "shingles and roofing materials" to "musical intruments."

As shown in the chart below, only one of the five main categories saw a drop in imports so far this year, and that was "industrial supplies and materials," down about 1%, but that is the group that includes energy as well as a number of other volatile commodity items.

Change in 2014 Import Levels through July by Primary Category

The other four categories saw a rise in imports, from a 3.5% jump in consumer goods to a sharp and perhaps surprising 8.9% increase in food and beverage imports.

(Manufacturing Article Continued Below)