Hodgen also showed an interesting chart illustrating how weekly earnings for truck drivers compared with workers in construction and manufacturing. Note that around 2001, driver earnings dropped sharply, and have stayed on par with earnings for manufacturing jobs versus their historic parallel with construction wages. But manufacturing work doesn't require the 60-70 work weeks that truck drivers put in, the irregular hours requied, long time spent away from home, etc. Is it any wonder workers are leaving the transport industry, Hodgen asked.

Steve Rush, president of Carbon Express, noted the weekly wage comparisons don't factor in that drivers on the road have to buy all their own meals on the road, where costs have risen sharply over the past decade even as driver pay has stagnated.

Wages and Costs Have to Go Up - or Do They?

Hodgen said that estimates are that to recruit needed drivers, wages will have to rise by as much as 30% by 2014.

"This move simply cannot be sustained without substantial increases in revenue," he said, meaning freight rates will have to increase by proportionate amounts.

But will shippers stick with carriers that have to raise rates to meet the need for driver wage increases - or simply jump to the next carrier who (for a period) thinks it can grab business by holding rates, or keep rates lower by hiring less quality drivers at below market wages?

Hodgen added that during periods of slow freight and other dynamics that hit the generally low profit margin industry, "drivers bear the brunt of the impact," adding that scenario will have to change to alter the driver shortage landscape.

Not only will pay and shipping rates have to go up, but shippers and receivers have roles to play in improving working conditions and lifestyles for drivers, especially the younger generation the industry needs to recruit from, Hodgen and Rush both said.

Rush said he believes, for example, that the common practice now of having drivers on the road on national holidays so a shipment can arrive the first day back will ultimately be changed.

He added he still sees lots of times when "drivers will be stuck at a stop for 8, 9 10 hours, and they aren't getting paid for that time," adding that "if shippers are trying to find ways to get around paying the demurrage charges for that, you're cheating the driver."

He said the older drivers who grew up with those kind of practices are just sort of used to living with them, but he doesn't believe the next generation of drivers will put up with that kind of treatment.

"Neither carriers nor shippers can treat drivers like some kind of commodity that you can go out and get every week, or we will all be in trouble. We are in trouble," Rush said.

He believes, however, that broad use of electronic on-board recorders (EOBRs), or what he simply calls electronic logs, will play an important role in improving the lifestyle of drivers, since they no longer will be able to fudge the records to meet at times almost impossible demands of carriers or shippers, skirting hours of service or other rules.

He said that as his company has moved to electronic logs and used that move in their recruitment ads, the number of applications has actually fallen sharply - but that the smaller pool was of much higher quality, and ultimately Carbon Express hired them at a much higher rate.

How do you see the truck driver shortage playing out? Will shippers be willing to do their share in terms of higher rates and treating drivers better to contribute to "sustaining" the driver pool? Or will we be having this same discussion and willing to accept capacity issues to keep rates and costs from rising much? Let us know your thoughts at the Feedback section below.