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Supply Chain by the Numbers

May 1, 2025

Supply Chain by the Numbers for May 1, 2025

US GDP Falls in Q1, Port of LA Expects Tariff Hit, UPS Announces Big Layoffs, Buy Now, Pay Later Surging


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35%
That is the expected drop in tariff-driven container volumes at the Port of Los Angeles next, according to Gene Seroka, executive director of the port, during an interview Tuesday on CNBC. Shipments from China make up about 45% of the business for the Port of LA, though some transport companies will be looking to pick up goods at other points in Southeast Asia to try to fill up their ships. Seroka also said he expects roughly a quarter of the usual number of ships arriving to the port to be canceled in May. Meanwhile, overall bookings for 20-foot shipping containers from China to the US were 45% lower than a year earlier by mid-April, according to the latest available data from container tracking service Vizion.

50%

That is the percent of US shoppers aged 18 to 79 who use “buy now, pay later” retail load services. That according to a large, very recent survey of consumers conducted by Lending Tree. What’s more, the survey also found that of that 50%, 25% of respondents said they were using BNPL loans to buy groceries, up from 14% in 2024 and 21% in 2023, Lending Tree said. Meanwhile, 41% of respondents said they made a late payment on a BNPL loan in the past year, up from 34% in the year prior. Being late triggers charges and fees from the BNPL lender. The loans, which allow consumers to split up purchases into several smaller payments, are a popular alternative to credit cards because they often don’t charge interest if the consumer makes on-time payments. This data is seen by many commentators as another sign of a weakening US economy.



0.3%
That was the annualized rate of decline in US real Q1 GDP (inflation-adjusted), according to the Commerce Dept. Wednesday. Though the decline was slight, it was down from positive growth of 2.4% in Q4 of 2024. This stoked worries of a recession in the US, with the most common definition of one being two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and Q2 thus far feeling wobbly. Ironically, driving GDP down was a surge of imports in the quarter, as businesses and consumers raced to stock up before Trump's sweeping tariffs took effect in early April. Imports are subtracted when the government does its GDP calculation.



20,000
That is how many mostly white-collar workers UPS said this week it would furlough by the end of the year, as communicated in its quarterly earnings call this week. In addition, UPS will close over 70 freight terminals and other facilities by the end of June. The moves are being made as part of UPS’ “Network of the Future” initiative, which the company said will generate some $3.5 billion in cost savings. UPS’ stock price is down about 33% in the past 12 months.

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