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Supply
Chain by the Numbers |
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Jan. 16, 2025
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Dangerous Demographics. Freight Shipments Down Big in December. DHL makes Big Deal in Reverse Logstics. US CO2 Emissions Fall (Barely) in 2024
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2033 |
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That is the year the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) now says US deaths will exceed births, as estimated in the CBO’s annual 30-year projection of the US population released this week. That estimation comes seven years earlier than what the CBO estimated in its 30-year population outlook released last year. At that time, in January 2024, the CBO projected deaths to outpace births by 2040. If the forecast proves accurate, it means the US population will start to contract, in the face of sharply declining fertility rates among US women. The impact will be seismic. For instance, the CBO now expects there to be just 93 million people ages 24 or younger in 2054, down from 106 million in 2025. Demography is destiny, as the saying goes. |
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That was the year-over-year drop in the Cass Information Systems’ Shipments Index in December, as released in the monthly report from Cass and partner ACT Research. That was the largest monthly fall in the index, which includes multiple modes but is heavily weighted towards full truckload, since the previous January, as the freight recession continues. The index also was down 3.1% versus November. It was also another bad full year for US truckers. After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined another 4.1% in 2024, after drooping 5.5% in 2023. |
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0.2% |
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That was the decline in US greenhouse gas emissions in 2024, according to a report this week from research firm Rhodium Group. That even as US economic growth was positive, likely growing somewhere between 2-3% when all the data comes in. That divergence — emissions falling as economic activity rises — is a “cause for optimism,” said Ben King, an associate director at Rhodium Group’s energy and climate practice, as until recently emissions and GDP moved mostly in tandem. The industrial sector drove the divergence of emissions from growth, with emissions falling by 1.8%, due partly to the shift away from coal use and toward a reliance on natural gas and renewables. |
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