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Supply Chain by the Numbers
   
 

- Jan. 18, 2024

   
 

Supply Chain by the Numbers for January 18, 2024

   
 

Study Says Huge Number of Cities to Shrink; US Manufacturing Flat again in December; China Export Focus Changes; AI to Impact 60% of US Jobs

 
 
 
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50%

 

That is the share of the 25,000 US cities that will lose a quarter of their populations or more by the end of the century. That according to a new analysis from economists at the University of Chicago. The study also says that if US fertility rates continue to decline and the exodus from cities gets worse, as many as two-third of cities could see their populations shrink significantly. While 2100 may seem a long way from now, the impact of the trend is already being felt in many cities. Eventually, the study found, “The implications of this massive decline in population will bring unprecedented challenges, possibly leading to disruptions in basic services like transit, clean water, electricity and internet access, as cities shrink and populations age.” This on-going trend was sped up during Covid, as working from home began common and enabled Americans to move out of cities and into more rural areas. The report added that the depopulation numbers will be higher in the Northeast and Midwest regions of the country than in the South and West – all this with major supply chain implications.

 

 

 
 
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$524 Billion

That was the value of Chinese exports to the 10 countries defined as part of the Asean region (Southeast Asia) in 2023, according to data released by China this week. That is significant because it marks the first time China has shipped more to those Asean countries than to the US, which received $500 billion in Chinese exports last year. Interestingly, however, Chinese exports to Mexico were up more than 5% through November, with Chinese companies likely shipping some products there for final sale in the US and thus avoid US tariffs. The same is true for countries such as Thailand and Vietnam, with China increasingly shipping goods there to be finished and then re-exported to developed nations.

 

 
 
 
 

99.1

That was the level of the US manufacturing output index for December, as released this week as usual by the Federal Reserve bank. That was basically flat with the index level of 99.0 seen in November, and about the same as scores hovering around the 99.0 level since February 2023, with no real growth, but not recessionary with declines either. The December score, however, was up 1.2% from the same period in 2022. At an index level of 99.1, it means US manufacturing is still below output in the baseline year of 2017 (index = 100) now seven years later. It is also well below the all-time high of about 108, reached in late 2007.

 

 
 

60%

That is the share of jobs in advanced economies such as the UK and US that are exposed to AI, according to a new study by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF found about half of workers will benefit from the technology, which could boost overall productivity. But for the other 50%, robots will be able to do tasks done today by humans, resulting in fewer jobs and lower wages. Said an IMF official: 'We are on the brink of a technological revolution that could jump start productivity, boost global growth and raise incomes around the world. Yet it could also replace jobs and deepen inequality.” The IMF noted that while poorer countries “face fewer immediate disruptions from AI,” they are also less equipped to make the most of the benefits.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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