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Supply
Chain by the Numbers |
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- April 29, 2021
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Q1 US GDP Soars as Expected; Amazon to Soon Overtake Walmart as Largest US Retailer; Mall Traffic Rebounding, but May Never Fully Recover; UPS Sees Q1 Profit Explosion |
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6.4% |
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That was the huge rise in Q1 US GDP on an annualized basis versus Q4 2020, according to the first estimate from the Commerce Dept. Thursday. Except for the reopening-fueled Q3 jump last year, it was the best quartely growth in GDP since the third quarter of 2003. “This signals the economy is off and running and it will be a boom-like year,” said Mark Zandi chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Obviously, the American consumer is powering the train and businesses are investing strongly.” Consumers are driving the jump in GDP, with spending up a robust 10.2%. Spending soared by 41.4% on durable goods such as appliances, furniture and other long-lasting items. But note that muscular consumer spending was in large part due to another round of stimulus checks, this time for $1,400. |
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| That was the growth in foot traffic in March versus a year earlier at a select group of 52 of the largest shopping malls in the US, according to new estimates using mobile-device location data from analytics firm Placer.ai. Of course, traffic was way down in March of 2020, as the coronavirus outbreak started in the US, and many malls and stores were closed in the month. Traffic last month was down 19% from March 2019. Will that 19% ever return, or is it lost forever to ecommerce? That a vital question for retailers and mall operator. Some experts say mall traffic and shopping are benefitting from pent-up demand which may subside before too long. The good news for mall landlords: rent collection has improved this year. “Our collection rates are above 90%, that’s really good news,” Ami Ziff, director for national retail at real-estate firm Time Equities, told the Wall Street Journal. |
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10.2% |
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That was the growth in revenue per parcel for UPS in Q1, according to its earnings report this week. That while cost per parcel increased only 2.2%. As you might guess, that made for a strong bottom line, as UPS net income jumped to $4.79 billion from $965 million in 2020. Revenue was up 27% in the quarter. Growth was much faster from small shippers, rising 35.6% in Q1, a lot more than growth from large shippers. That is good news for UPS too, as smaller shippers typically get far smaller discounts than big companies do. UPS also touted its “revenue quality initiatives,” a plan to get customers to cover more of the costs of surging ecommerce deliveries, which are more expensive than it’s once focus on business to business parcel shipments. |
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That is the estimated gross merchandise value (GMV) that will be sold on Amazon.com’s US platform in 2025, according to new research this week from Retail insight. GMV includes goods sold directly by Amazon, as well as the value of goods sold by third-party sellers through Amazon’s marketplace service, for which it receives commissions. If that were to happen, Retail Insights says it will likely mean Amazon will soon overtake Walmart at the US’ largest retailer, at least as measured by GMV. The research expects a compound annual growth rate of 14% for Amazon between 2020 and 2025. In comparison, Walmart's total sales are expected to grow at a 3.9% CAGR, hitting $523.3 billion in the same 2025 timeframe. We’ll noate some analysts don’t include GMV from marketplaces in their ranking of US retailers by sales. Overall US e-commerce sales grew about 30% in 2020 from $546.3 billion in 2019.
