Gartner's Overall Supply Chain Predictions (covers a timeframe of several years):
Noha Tohamy, Mickey North Rizza, and Michael Dominy
By 2014, 20% of Asia-sourced finished goods and assemblies consumed in the U.S. will shift to the Americas: North American enterprises underestimate the total supply chain costs of offshoring to Asia. Escalating oil prices and rising wages erode initial estimates for cost savings that did not account for inventory-carrying costs, lead times and product quality. In addition, production in emerging markets will increasingly be needed for local consumption.
By 2015, at least 25% of new CEOs at Fortune 500 manufacturers and retailers will have deep supply chain experience: Business and financial experience will be a requirement for supply chain executives who are being groomed for top management positions. The Supply chain span of control will continue to expand to include more commercial functions, such as product design and launch, and customer service.
Supply chain should be incorporated as part of every management rotation program to ensure leadership competency across all functions of the corporation.
By 2014, 30% of supply chains will utilize advanced technology to manage commodity volatility, and to improve raw materials management: Commodities have become a larger part of a manufacturer's cost structure. It is not uncommon to see 10% to 40% volatility in commodity prices, which easily translates to a double-digit percentage hit to the bottom line, without effective risk management processes.
Enterprises need visibility to treasury's commodity hedges and supply chain's raw material commodity requirements; profitability is at risk without transparency across functions. ERP systems do not allow bill of materials (BOMs) components to be systematically broken down into the raw material cost components that would support effective hedging strategies
By 2014, low-cost country sourcing (LCCS) strategies will give way to optimized-cost country sourcing (OCCS) strategies: Global needs for design, source, manufacture and sell-anywhere strategies require companies to rethink cost-value trade-offs, particularly when product and service demand are highly volatile.
Enterprises will reassess their supply chain networks, including a thorough review of their low-cost country supplier cost structures. The next wave of offshore and local-market sourcing will include optimization of lead times, transportation costs, quality, government stability, supply chain risk and a host of other factors to measure optimized country sourcing.
By 2016, 50% of Gartner's Top 25 will rely on predictive analytics to further exploit low-latency, network-based data: After billions of dollars spent on ERP, many companies still lack the timely, accurate and network-based data that can guide fact-based, timely supply chain decisions.
To leverage "big data," a more-defined predictive analytics solution space will emerge. This will take advantage of both intra- and inter-enterprise data, and will generate actionable recommendations for different time horizons. Traditional business intelligence capabilities will become a subset of this solution space.
Gartner's Global Supply Chain Predictions (covers a timeframe of several years):
Dwight Klappich, Greg Aimi and Several Others
By 2016, less than 10% of logistics organizations will have a chief compliance and risk management officer: Despite data showing that compliance with government requirements and supply chain risk management are at the top of the priority list, the responsibility for these and related issues continues to be fragmented, and is likely to stay that way.
By 2016, 20% of SCM organizations will adopt a supply chain execution convergence application strategy: The emerging concept Gartner calls "supply chain execution convergence" is where SCM organizations adopt a supply chain execution (SCE) application platform that allows them to model, orchestrate and synchronize end-to-end logistics processes. SCE Convergence is where SCE functional silos are broken down, and business processes span, optimize and synchronize across traditional functional domains.
By 2016, slower global trade growth will force shippers to adjust from the proliferation to optimization of international flows: Shippers will evaluate global sourcing options more carefully (e.g., true delivered cost versus risk), take advantage of new shipping-lane patterns, such as those afforded by the Panama Canal expansion or the Far East Trans-Siberian railway, and more comprehensively manage the risks involved. Maturity in international logistics process will enable companies to focus more on optimizing the flow of goods rather than concentrating on just getting the goods where they need to be, as is often the case today.
By 2016, Pan-European intermodal freight adoption will grow by 60% as a result of increasing governmental and sustainability mandates: Use of rail carriage for freight in Europe is much lower in Europe than it is in the US, in part because of many system and infrastructure issues within and especially between countries. Assume that rail and internal waterway services will increase on specific corridors, as a result of combined government-led infrastructure development, operator and shipper initiatives for regular service, and possible issues with road congestion, fuel prices, drivers' availability and safety.
By 2016, over 50% of Global 1000 logistics organizations will be required to systematically report verified emissions and environmental data: The shift from aspirations and feel-good platitudes around sustainable logistics to verified requests for accurate environmental and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions information and actual performance outcomes is being catalyzed by industry groups, market expectations and regulations. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) SmartWay program provided a significant tail wind, and the recently announced WRI Scope 3 protocol is set to codify end-user expectations further.
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