From SCDigest's On-Target E-Magazine
- July 16, 2013 -
Logistics News: New HOS Rules Could Cause Driver Shortage of 60,000, Turn Some Two-Day Deliveries to Three Day
1000 Miles is Magic Number; Some Truckers Say Rules Needed to Keep them from Pushing Too Hard; Are Rates Headed Higher?
SCDigest Editorial Staff
More fallout and reaction to the enforcement of the new Hours of Service (HOS) rules that went into effect July 1.
First, while there continues to be debate over just how much of an impact on productivity the new rules will have, the transportation analysts at FTR Associates said in a recent webinar that in the short term, the new rules could require an additional 60,000 drivers to pick up the slack. That at a time when a shortage of drivers is already vexing the industry.
SCDigest Says: |
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| On many line haul moves of say about 1000 miles (the approximate distance between Chicago and Houston), a driver following the new HOS rules can still possibly make the trip in two days - but barely. |
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What Do You Say?
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Noel Perry, an analyst at FTR, says the new requirement for 30 minutes break in the first eight hours of driving will probably have a modest impact, as many drivers already take a short break now. He estimates the loss in productivity in theory to be just 6% from this element of the new rules, and likely less than that in practice
The new requirements around the so-called 34-hour start up rule are more onerous, Perry said. There, he calculates the loss of productivity of as much as a hefty 15%, at least for drivers doing truly long haul routes.
If his numbers are correct, Perry says he is dubious the industry will be able to hire enough drivers to make up the difference, resulting in a more severe driver shortage.
That might in turn be part of a series of factors that could lead to a sharp rise in truckload rates, Perry said.
"Once prices get that momentum, they tend to stay increased for a while even after the pressure goes away," Perry said. "If we have a major pricing event at the end of 2013 or in 2014, I expect it to last for two years."
Meanwhile, an interesting story on the web site truckinginfo.com, which caters to heavy duty carriers and drivers. It shows that in addition to a loss of productivity, on many line haul moves of say about 1000 miles (the approximate distance between Chicago and Houston), a driver following the new HOS rules can still possibly make the trip in two days - but barely.
(Transportation Management Article Continued Below)
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What do Drivers Think?
