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Supply
Chain by the Numbers |
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- May 8, 2014 -
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Port Group wants to Sail Away from Tax on Cadillac Health Care Plan for Union; Reshoring Strategy at Otis Elevator Fell Fast; Number of US Start-Ups Now Below Business Closings; Spike in Truckload Spot Pricing Points to Higher Rates for Rest of 2014 |
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The percent of new businesses (those less than one year old) out of all business in the US in 2011, the last year for which the Brookings Institute has data. Why does this matter? Because that metric had been falling for 30 years, and is now just about half of its level in 1978. In fact, starting in 2009, the percent of start-ups has fallen below the level of failures and other closings (such as acquisitions) for the first time ever. That of course means the total number US business is shrinking, despite continued population growth. The cause is not rising failures/closings, which have remained relatively constant in percentage terms, but rather the large and continuous decline in the number of start-ups. This trend threatens US economic dynamism, Brookings warns, and will hold back GDP growth.
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9% |
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Approximate rise in spot market truckload rates that JB Hunt was seeing in Q1, according to its recent earnings reports. Other carriers, noticeably Werner, also reported strong spot market rates. That is certainly a sign that the supply-demand balance is moving, perhaps quickly, in the carriers' favor, as spot rates can change much more quickly of course versus contract rates for a given carrier. The factors: an improving freight volume environment, what appears to be a real, large shortage of drivers, a still high rate of trucking firm failures, and Hours of Service rule changes that hit productivity. The bottom line: rates are heading higher in 2014. See Q1 2014 Truckload Carrier Review.
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