2022 Supply Chain Predictions from the Analysts Part 1

Now that we're done with our various reviews of the year 2021 in supply chain, it's time as usual for some looks for a couple of weeks at what leading analysts have in their crystal balls in terms of predictions for 2022 and and beyond.

This week, we'll start with Gartner, and its "predicts" for 2022 relative first to supply chain strategy.

Before delivering five different predictions by anywhere from one to three different analyst authors each, the Gartner researchers state that "In 2022 and beyond, chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) must update their vision to account for ongoing and as-yet-unimagined disruption to global networks, operating models and stakeholder demands" - which sounds to me like a very big effort.

Following that, the first prediction is from Gartner analysts Pier Manenti and Simon Bailey: "By 2026, more than 50% of large organizations will compete as collaborative digital ecosystems rather than discrete firms, sharing inputs, assets and innovations."

So we've heard about it being supply chain versus supply chain for many years now. How is this different?

Well, maybe it's the problem that companies are trying to solved, which Gartner says has to do with supply chain risk:"The need to mitigate supply risk and increase the level of supply chain agility emerged as the most frequent reason why CSCOs want to create (or participate in) a partner ecosystem."

There can be a lot of power in such now largely digital collaboration, which I will assume mostly means information system integration.

"The ability to leverage the capabilities of all the partners is the key to the ecosystems becoming the dominant competitive entity in the future," Gartner says, adding that "the ability to share data that individual partners have sensed enables the entire ecosystem to respond to inputs that would otherwise be missed."

I can agree to an extent, but I would just note it is the lack of such information sharing that is at the source of the famous, decades old "Bullwhip Effect" and how it plays havoc on inventory decisions.

Gartner expects even deeper levels of collaboration, including warehouse capacity sharing, shared innovation and pooled investments.

It adds that sharing of data provides the opportunity to provide upstream visibility to supplier capacities and operational status combined with more accurate view of market demand.

But this has always been the promise of supply chain collaboration, digital or not, isn't it? Recall the promised benefits of Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) when it was launched as a model now more than 20 years ago. They are not much different from those envisioned for such "digital" collaboration today.

I will certainly agree on part of Gartner's recommendations on this topic, which is to "Build your ecosystem partnering capabilities by being clear on how you determine value exchange." But agreeing on those value sharing agreements remains a real obstacle to partnering.

My take in the end: nothing really has much changed about the benefit and challenges of partner collaboration. "Digital" is a new twist, but is still just integration in the end. Maybe blockchain turns out to be a silver bullet of sorts, but this a challenge we've been battling for some time and will l for many years forward.

The next prediction I will look at is this: "By 2024, supply chains redesigned for modularity will operationalize business model innovations in half the time of competitors," from Jennifer Loveland.

I didn't really understand what this prediction meant upon just reading it, but it seemed to me something that promised that kind of competitive advantage was worth exploring.

In its definition of business models, Gartner cites examples of moving from product to service sales, pay-as-you-go offerings, and usage metering and subscriptions sales. Another example is transforming from selling products to "solutions."

These new go-to-market strategies all have a digital thread to them, Gartner says, and of course many traditional companies have been challenged by digital competitors. Giving customers more options is also a key factor in digitization.

"A critical source of competitive advantage for supply chains will be the ability to make operating model change easier, faster, safer and less costly," Gartner says - and I think we can all agree on that. But how to get there?

Gartner says "Modular operating model designs help create composability, breaking supply chain resources and processes into "LEGO blocks" of capabilities that can be quickly reused and reconfigured."

Sounds good - is it really possible? Gartner says you achieve that by commonality, standardizing connections for interchangeability and "good-enough" solutions that can be broadly adopted.

I don't know, it seems to me moving faster is achieved through a combination of the technology you have (or don't), mindset/culture, executive leadership, what else?

So I am going to generally agree with Gartner here, but say there are many ways to skin the agility cat.

Finally, let's look at this Gartner prediction: "By 2024, 70% of global organizations will report metrics to track realization in supply chain against corporate diversity, equity and inclusion objectives," from Dana Stiffler and Marco Sandrone.

So, let's all agree we are now in a very different world - and that there is no question large companies and likely smaller ones too will expand tracking all kinds of metrics around corporate social responsibility and sustainability.

That's for a variety of reasons, but one of them is that it may be what today's customers really want. Gartner says supply chain leaders "believe that over the next three to five years customers will intentionally shift their business to companies that demonstrate inclusive, equitable and diverse leadership and employee experience, even when it costs more."

So the related metrics will become important for company leaders, including CSCOs, and thus will be increasingy tracked and reported. So on this one, Gartner is certainly on target.

I reviewed three of the five supply chain strategy predictions from Gartner for 2022. I wish there had been a few more specific to what I will traditional supply chain strategy.

More analyst predictions for next week.

Any reaction to the Gartner predicts? Let us know your thoughts at the Feedback button (email) or section below.