covered stories in the past around “Peak
Oil” theories and the potential impact
on energy, transportation and other supply
chain costs if such predictions are accurate
Chain Management and the End of Oil,
Saudi Arabia Running Out of Oil? Giant
Oil Find in Gulf of Mexico Offers Promise
that There is Lot More Oil Out There).
Now, reports that production from the giant
Cantarell oil field in Mexico, the world’s
second largest by output, is falling dramatically,
almost perfectly in line with what Peak
Oil theorist would predict.
In the past year, the Cantarell field has
seen its daily production rates drop by
20 percent, an incredibly rapid decline.
It is now producing about 1.6 million barrels
per day, down from two million a year ago.
The Wall Street Journal recently noted
the challenge faced by world oil production:
“Two decades ago, about a dozen fields
produced more than a million barrels a day.
Now there are only four, one of which is
Cantarell. The future of two others, discovered
more than 50 years ago, remains in question.”
Pemex, Mexico’s national oil company,
is applying some new technology to the field,
and hopes to stem the slide in barrels per
day as a result. Even so, it says production
from Cantarell will decline to 600,000 barrels
per day by 2013.
Our take: expect oil prices to remain very