No need to go through the various numbers on the holiday shopping season that are being reported daily, usually by some TV announcer who almost seems to relish reporting the bad numbers.
As a consumer, it certainly felt different than any year I can remember recently, even holiday shopping seasons in recessionary 2001-02 time frames.
Store/mall traffic obviously was way down, but frankly, at least to me, did seem better at Wal-Mart. I went to a Wal-Mart supercenter one Saturday morning and it was packed.
My more supply chain-related observation is that retailers clearly pared back dramatically on inventory levels. There were some exceptions, such as electronic stores making fairly large bets on a few hot items, but overall, inventory levels often seemed downright stingy.
My family was looking for some additional Christmas tree lights a good two weeks before Christmas, and at several of the big box stores the stock of lights was pathetically small. I am sure in previous years that the display areas and inventories of Christmas accessories were much larger than I saw this year. We were picking through the last of what was left in mid-December at Wal-Mart, Home Depot, etc.
It also seemed to me that there was a larger than usual share of stock-outs resulting from the low inventory levels. My unscientific observation was that there was a high percentage of empty spots on store shelves.
That tells me retailers were cutting back on orders well before the big economic crisis of October/November, by which time most goods are already well on their way to retail distribution centers and store fronts.
The headline numbers will focus on the drop in Christmas sales from 2007, which will range from modest to severe depending on the retailer, but what will not be reported is how well retailers managed their inventories. Those that got it closest to right will have squeezed out the maximum sales with less of a financial hit for unsold goods.
Would love your thoughts on the Supply Chain Christmas 2008.
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