September
23, 2004 |
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Dan Gilmore
Editor-in-Chief |
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I spent the last weekend reading The
Supply Chain Handbook, a new book from Tompkins Associates
that brings together almost two dozen industry thought
leaders who address an incredibly wide range of supply
chain topics.
It’s a book that should have a place on every
supply chain and logistics manager’s shelf (more
on that in a bit), but one thing that especially intrigued
me was a chapter by Tompkins Associates president Dr.
Jim Tompkins on customer satisfaction.
The chapter starts with the simple but powerful principle
that “Customer satisfaction is the measure of
a supply chain’s effectiveness.“ That crisp
statement triggered a number of thoughts. For example,
while we often have trouble getting executives to really
understand the value of supply chain excellence, most
of them certainly understand the value of customer satisfaction
– is that the framework we should be using to
explain how supply chain improvement really drives shareholder
value? After all, in the end, even operating cost reductions
allow us to lower prices, which is an important component
of customer sat.
Dr. Tompkins then offers a simple formula for understanding
customer satisfaction: Customer satisfaction simply
equals a customer’s perception of service minus
their expectation of service. Not understanding this
formula often leads companies to overly focus on internally
generated measures that they think serve as a proxy
for customer satisfaction, but may not really reflect
it.
The book notes: “There is often a major disconnect
between internally measured customer service performance
and actual customer satisfaction. KPIs are important,
but meeting them does not necessarily mean that customers
are satisfied. Customers base their satisfaction on
how easy it is to conduct business, taking into account
such factors as quality of information available, consistency
of receipt timing, and others.“ It cites a few
examples of real companies that were hitting customer
service goals but in fact were experiencing unsatisfied
customers. And I loved the anecdote about the grocery
chain that invested in a lot of express lines to speed
small item purchases, while the customers buying full
shopping carts and who really drove the chains’
profits had their wait times increased.
Another challenge for companies in driving customer
satisfaction is defining who the customer really is.
For many companies, this is not as simple as it might
seem. For example, is a beverage company’s customer
the distributor it ships to, the retailers the distributor
serves, or the end consumer? The real answer is that
all of them are customers, and we must organize our
supply chain to deliver customer satisfaction at each
level. And for most important operational issues related
to that satisfaction, “No one function, department,
or company can answer these questions without the help
of others.“ That again to me is a simple and effective
way to crystallize the need for internal and external
collaboration – the customer cannot be satisfied
without cooperation and coordination of multiple parties
and companies.
These are just a few of the topics you’ll find
in The Supply Chain Handbook. It brings together such
well-known supply chain experts as Gene Tyndall, Gartner's
Andrew White, Ken Ackerman, Paul Bender and others,
who contribute individual chapters on topics ranging
from CPFR to transportation excellence to handy formulas
for calculating how much dock space you require. We
recommend it. You can get more information at www.tompkinsinc.com.
Is there a difference between customer service and customer
satisfaction? Can focusing too much on internal KPIs
alone sometimes lead to problems? Do we think enough
about the different tiers of customers our supply chains
have to serve? And is focusing on how the supply chain
delivers customer satisfaction, the right way to improve
executive attention? Let
us know your thoughts.
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The Supply Chain Handbook offers a number of formulas
and rules of thumb for calculating various supply
chain and logistics requirements. According to
the book, at what number of DCs (assuming a single
tier network, a fixed level of demand, and all
the same DC capacity) will you double the total
network inventory versus one central DC?
Answer
below |
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Feedback
is coming in at a rate greater than we can publish
it – thanks for your response.
This
week, we’re publishing still more letters
on our “Is it a zero-sum game on the revenue
side for RFID pieces” – mostly agreeing,
but with a couple of dissents. Our Feedback of
the Week is from a writer who asked to remain
anonymous (you’ll understand why), in a
letter that was triggered by that same RFID piece
but which ultimately touches on several issues
related to the consumer goods-retail supply chain
- from someone on the consumer goods side of the
equation. We know you will enjoy it! (And yes,
praise for our newsletter will get you somewhere!)
For
more complete comments from readers, click
here.
Keep
the dialog going! Give us your thoughts on this
week's Supply Chain topics.
feedback@scdigest.com |
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View
Full Article >>
Bear
Stearns recently released its always-interesting quarterly
shippers survey, based on responses from more than 100
companies across a very wide range of issues. It's worth
taking a look at to get a pulse of what your peers are
thinking, especially in the area of transportation �
and you can get a feel for what transportation and supply
chain stocks Bear Stearns is recommending at the same
time.
Highlights
of this quarter's report include:
There
is a variety of other data in the report that you might
find worth reviewing.
The
most interesting thing to me about this data is the
move towards expanding the carrier base by many shippers
as a result of the capacity squeeze. This of course
is contrary to the trend of many shippers over the past
few years, many of whom have embraced core carrier programs
and other initiatives to reduce the number of carriers
� often dramatically.
Do you think the tightening capacity
in the trucking industry will cause shippers to expand
their carrier bases and embrace again many more small
carriers? What will be other impacts of the driver and
equipment shortage? Let us know your thoughts.

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View
Full Article >>
Article in the most recent issue of
CFO magazine on RFID. Although well-written, as is typical
with CFO pieces, there’s not a lot new here, but
think its good for all of us to know what the CFO is
reading about RFID technology.
In summary (surprise, surprise): over the long-term,
RFID will deliver real value and change the way supply
chains work, but has significant technical and ROI problems
over the next few years.
The article quotes the seemingly omni-present Simon
Ellis of Unilever on the inherent advantages of RFID
technology over bar codes: "There are substantive
challenges ahead," says Ellis, "but RFID is
fundamentally better than bar codes." For example,
"Managing space will be a much different proposition
if you can ID cases from 20 feet away."
Of course, currently the challenge is to get RFID to
work from 20 inches, let alone 20 feet. Ellis also states
Unilever has "fiddled with the stuff, but so far,
the experience has been a little underwhelming."
Add that to the current cost of tag and other technology
requirements to make RFID work, and ROI would seem pretty
elusive for now. The article quotes Lyle Ginsburg from
Accenture as saying he tells clients "the costs
are too high, performance isn't there yet, the business
case is bad, China is threatening its own standard,
and the public perceives tags as spy chips — you
know, the mark of the devil." The article also
includes a chart from AMR Research estimating the costs
of compliance for a typical consumer goods manufacturer,
shown below.
The Price of Tagging
What a consumer products company shipping 50 million cases a
year might spend
for RFID implementation (in millions).

Tags and readers |
$5-$10 |
System integration |
$3-$5 |
Changes to existing supply-chain applications |
$3-$5 |
Data storage and analytics |
$2-$3 |
Total |
$13-$23 |

Source: AMR Research
On the other hand, I didn’t realize the level
at which the airline industry is pursuing RFID–based
systems to improve baggage handling. The article provides
some details on efforts at both Delta airlines and the
Las Vegas airport that have involved a lot of learning
about how the stuff works that will be part of the cumulative
knowledge base that will ultimately help move RFID maturity
along. But the Delta project, for example, will cost
$25 million, and won’t be fully deployed until
2007.
The bottom line: don’t expect your CFO to be beating
the RFID drum any time real soon. We do seem to be moving
from the hype phase of RFID to a much more realistic
appraisal of where the technology and value is really
at – if it just wasn’t for this pesky Wal-Mart
thing….
Do you think the market is moving from hype to reality
about the costs and benefits of RFID? How can we
possibly reconcile the kinds of cost and performance
problems
we will have for some time with Wal-Mart’s
continued compliance push? Let us know your thoughts. 
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View
Full Article >>
The researchers at Cannondale Associates
recently released one of their studies ranking perceptions
of excellence and leadership in the food service industry
(restaurants, food distribution, etc.). The researchers
surveyed a large number of both suppliers and food service
providers across several important attributes, including
supply chain excellence but also a variety of other
business variables.
According to food service respondents, the vendors with
the best supply chains are:
1. Tyson Foods
2. Coca-Cola
3. Pepsi-Cola
4. General Mills
5. Kraft
6. Frito-Lay
7. Rich's
8. Sara Lee
9. Kellogg's
10. Schwan's
From the manufacturer’s perspective, the food
service companies expected to be the power operators
over the next 15 years include:
1. McDonald's
2. Wendy's
3. Darden
4. Subway
5. Starbucks
6. Outback Steakhouse
7. Panera Bread Co.
8. Brinker
9. Aramark
10. Sodexo
The above link just takes you to a basic Cannondale
page – you have to contact Cannondale for the
full report.

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I have been enjoying your e-newsletter for several months
now, and would like to thank you for that enjoyment.
I applaud your ability to use fewer words, to say more,
than any other business publication I have seen.
I would like to add a few comments to some long-running
discussion threads, but must request that you do not
make my name public as I suspect that the company that
employs me as a production planner would not agree with
all of these.
What prompted me to write at this particular time was
your recent column questioning whether or not the employment
of RFID would increase revenues for manufacturers. You
were dead on: when I can't find the brand I am looking
for, I will most likely buy another brand at the same
store. Who has time (or, considering the cost of gasoline,
money) to be driving all over town looking for a tube
of toothpaste? The value doesn't justify the investment.
But when I do see empty shelves at my local Long's,
I don't wonder, “gee, why don't they invest in
RFID?'” I reflect, rather, that other factors
are at work in making my preferred item unavailable
to me.
Most organizations focus their cost-reduction efforts,
as another of your correspondent observes, on reducing
staff. The local Long's does not employ a person whose
responsibility it is to perform continuous replenishment.
This could be as low-tech as circulating through the
store and making sure that the shelves stay stocked.
Gelson's does this, but that is another business model
altogether. (More on that later.) Rite Aid is so bad
at replenishment that I no longer shop in their stores;
the odds that I won't find what I want are too high.
Absent an extra stocking clerk, the store continuously
collects information electronically as to what customers
are buying. To judge from my Long's receipt, they keep
this information in some detail. I don't see their using
this information to make a connection between the supply
planner having brought in X cases and the store having
sold all X. If they don't use this information now,
what makes us think that they will use it just because
the collection method is different?
Some supply planner, somewhere in the organization,
decided to send that store X number of cases of my brand
of toothpaste. The store could have sold X + 50. The
planner's decision was based on...a forecast, probably?
And yet no organization has made it a priority to improve
its demand planning. I know that in my own organization,
the sales force is rarely held responsible for its failure
to add market intelligence to the statistical forecast.
Of course, we are also at fault for not integrating
our promotions-management system with our demand planning
one. But either way, we have made no commitment to improving
the reliability of our forecast.
I don't mean to sound anti-technology; certainly it
has made our lives easier, our workplaces more efficient,
in any number of ways. It's just that I hate to see
money ill-spent. (Fifteen years of continuous cost-reduction
programs will do that to you.) In the case of RFID technology,
we see organizations apparently willing to put themselves
at serious financial risk rather than displease Wal*Mart.
I am not a believer in Wal*Mart's business model. I
think that in the long run it reduces the choices I
have as a consumer, because it presupposes that the
only criterion is price---- and by price I mean the
short-term 'per-unit' concept of price. If I can spend
$30 on a set of food-storage containers that will last
five years, why should I spend $7 on a set that won't
last one? Granted, I have the $30 now, and I acknowledge
that other people have only the $7. Part of why those
people have only the $7 is that they are employed by
Wal*Mart.
As a consumer, I want to be the one to make that choice;
not to have it taken away from me by the proverbial
900-pound gorilla. I choose to have a more pleasant
shopping experience than Wal*Mart offers. I choose to
value quality over per-unit price. I choose to look
at the long-term implications of my acts as a consumer.
I want to retain the right to choose. I don't think
I am alone in this regard--- witness the success of
Trader Joe's, whose business model is the exact opposite.
Thanks again for a really, really good newsletter.
Name withheld by request
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I
don't buy the argument that it's real lost sales. The
consumer still only has so much money to spend. I don't
believe there are numbers out there, which show the
consumer has all this "extra" money to spend
on other things, or save, or invest, because the product
he/she went to purchase was out of stock. Of course
this is only some off the cuff thoughts. I wish I had
time to really research it.
Steve Feller CPIM
Columbia Sporstwear

Right on Dan. Glad to hear a clear voice through the
hype. But the real issue is how important is it to keep
customers? If a stock out causes the customer to buy
someone else's product, does the original supplier lose
the customer for life and hence the entire customer
profit flow, or only for that single transaction? If
the former case, RFID is well worth the cost, but for
the later, does the total cost of RFID on every unit,
plus capital investment justify the lost profit on a
group of single transactions per unit time? What most
retailers have learned is that brands are sticky and
promotions work only for the duration of the promotion.
So with this as precedent, I think your zero sum analogy
is probably correct.
However, it does really beg the question of RFID, smart
shelves and promotion management, but I am sure we will
hear your views on that in another issue.
David A. March
Catalyst International, Inc.

If
there are no stockouts then there will be real savings.
I don't have to drive around looking for alternatives,
so save gas, auto wear and tear, and time. If I know
the product I want is certain to be in stock, I am more
likely to make that trip to get it than if I don't.
If I and everyone else visit fewer stores because we
find what we want the first time, fewer sales clerks
will be needed.
There's more to this than just shuffling profits around.
The point is that if the buying process can be made
more efficient, then more money will be spent at the
retail level.
Richard Rix

You
are RIGHT ON with the consumer demand statement. RFID
doesn't create demand, just might shift a small amount
of market share from a non-RFID retailer to an RFID
retailer. For companies that have extremely high inventory
accuracy already, RFID will have minimal benefits in
the near future.
Roger Reimink
Perrigo

Finally,
someone else gets it. We don't spend any more unless
we have more. It matters almost not at all whether the
product is on the first shelf we look or not. In Wal-Mart's
case (the early adopter) they may see most of the short-term
benefit in market share. That may result in a long-term
improvement for them. "They ALWAYS have what I
need."
Other retailers will be forced to "me too"
in order to survive. However, the CPG companies will
see little, if any, top line improvement since their
products are readily available at other locations.
For most suppliers to the major retailers, the use of
available information from current technologies (bar
codes, ASN's, WMS's) has not come close to its potential.
The marginal increase in information from RFID (unit
level serialization, non-line of site scanning, etc.)
will represent a smaller benefit than squeezing the
available juice out of current technologies for most
companies.
Dan M. Starovasnik
Peach State Integrated Technologies

This
is an excellent point relative to the potential true
revenue loss associated with stock outs at POS. To the
store, as long as the customer buys one of their alternative
products, it is not a loss but could actually result
in a sale with a greater profit percentage. The manufacturer
loses out in this instance but how often does a particular
manufacturer benefit when a shopper buys their product
because their competitor’s product is out of stock.
It would not surprise me if all of this comes out even
over time.
The real question of ROI justification for RFID is how
much real supply chain savings is actually available
when a supply chain is already heavily invested in ERP,
WMS and bar coding. Our studies have shown that inventory
accuracy, inventory levels, and customer order accuracy
are already so good that there is little, if any, justification
for RFID. All we are doing is adding cost to the consumer
when we should be trying to become more competitive
in our markets.
RFID like bar coding is nothing more than a data collection
method and requires investment in software products
to be effective at all. Once you have a supply chain
properly integrated and communicating with software
the proposed problems that RFID will help correct will
already be significantly reduced and the ROI justification
as well. I can see RFID pallet tags for variety pallets,
but I cannot see case or item level justification.
Herb Minor
ScottTech, LLC
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Your article prompted me to cite an instance detrimental
to offshore sourcing. There are several very large buildings
in Chicago that have recently replaced piping at enormous
cost. Reliable information indicates one large building
is said to have spent $15 million to replace the piping.
A building management company told me that they researched
the problem since several of their buildings were involved.
It seems the pipe was below our ASTM standards.
Does that mean that all pipe made here meets all standards?
Perhaps not, but gut feel and experience tells me that
it would be a good bet that it was. There are paper
certifications (certs without tests). It happens.
It took about 25 years to discover the problem. Hopefully
we will have same serious studies much earlier that
will allow us to make serious comparisons and quantify
them.
You might look at the computer support from Asia. I
can tell you personally that at this time it leaves
much to be desired and I suspect that it will cost the
software companies dearly in sales. Communication is
difficult when all parties are fluent in the same language,
how much more so when they are not.
Marty Lenow, P.E.
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