March 30, 2004

 
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Sales & Operations Planning: Building an Enterprise Plan of Record

By Rob Schneider, CEO and President, Steelwedge, Inc.

The Sales & Operations Planning process is not new. But until recently, it has been undervalued. In part, that's because S&OP is an ad hoc, informal process and, frankly, no one really trusts the results. Today, however, as the manufacturing economy begins to pick up speed, there's a renewed interest in making S&OP a strategic weapon.

Broadly speaking, S&OP is the process by which executives and planners in sales, marketing, product management, finance and operations collaborate to align their respective plans based on a global view of demand. The goal is to understand and project current and future demand variables across every part of the enterprise, then align customer, product, operational and business plans based on multiple perspectives. Yet in most companies, the reality is that the S&OP process falls fall short of achieving these goals.

Click here for the rest of this article

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Dan Gilmore
Editor-in-Chief

Putting the Focus on the Shelf     

I attended the AMR Research Retail/Consumer Goods Executive Conference two weeks ago, where AMR analysts and executives from retailers and consumer goods manufacturers shared their perspectives. The over-arching theme that drove most presentations: increasing focus on ensuring the customer's in-store experience, focused on performance at the shelf.

Procter and Gamble's Keith Harrison, the CPG giant's Global Product Supply officer, noted that P&G focuses on the two "moments of truth" with the customer. The first is the customer's experience - and choice - at the retail shelf. The second is their experience at home when using the product. Harrison noted that P&G has traditionally placed great emphasis on the customer experience, but has started a broad effort to increase focus on the shelf, understanding you don't get a chance at the second moment if you lose at the first.

The most obvious opportunity is to reduce out-of-stocks. The numbers typically cited are that 7-10% of general consumer items are missing at store shelf, and 18-25% of promotional items. According to the company's private research, when customers can't find the P&G product they're looking for, the retailer loses the sale 41% of the time, and the customer buys a non-P&G product 29% product of the time. That adds up to real money.

The key for P&G has been to evolve from an internally-focused supply chain to a more external, customer-focused one. For example, instead of measuring defects only at the manufacturing line, where they were exceptionally low, P&G is measuring them at the store shelf - where they found "defects" were much higher, leading to improvements in packaging that can withstand the rigors of handling through to and at the shelf. P&G is also looking to improve replenishment execution by switching its orientation from a forecast based approach, with long production runs, to one that is more agile in responding to near real-time demand signals. Harrison noted they were early in that journey, and that there were significant process and cultural changes required to change the replenishments paradigms, in addition to software and manufacturing technology upgrades. RFID (of course) will potentially play a key role.

AMR researchers emphasized the firm's vision of "Demand-Driven Supply Networks" (DDSN) as the key to decreasing inventory and performance at the retail shelf. What is a DDSN? It's really a mind-set more than a specific set of technologies. Consistent with P&G's presentation, the foundation is reacting to actual customer demand to drive the rest of the supply chain. That requires of course, a level of visibility into that demand, an adaptable internal supply chain that is prepared to respond effectively to these demand signals, and a network of suppliers that is also connected to end user demand data, and equally agile in its response.

There was a lot more at the conference, and I may share more over the coming weeks. (See AMR Retail IT spending report nearby in "News and Views".) At one level, we are simply re-echoing themes that go back many years, to Efficient Consumer Response, and the work P&G, Hau Lee of Stanford, and others have done on the "Bullwhip Effect," etc. Sometimes, though, it takes awhile before the theory, however accurate, truly becomes part of the corporate mindset. I think that's what we are starting to see happening here. It will still take some time, but whether we call it focusing on the shelf or not, we are finally, finally starting to see the CPG-retail supply chain move from push to pull .

Are retailers and manufacturers really ready to move to demand driven supply chains? What is finally causing this change in approach? What are the barriers - technology and cultural?

Let us know your thoughts.

 

AMR/NRF Research Predicts Big Increase in Retail Technology Spending for 2004

 

While We Have a Long Way to Go Before RFID Replaces Bar Codes, You'll See Many Applications Coming Soon

Allen-Edmonds Shoes Finds "Lean" Better than Offshoring

Summary and comment below.

   
 

Supply Chain Investment News

Supply Chain stocks had a decent week with Agile up 11% while  i2, Manu and Oracle posted modest gains.  Most other stocks in our index were flat.
 

Click here to see performance over the past week, month, quarter and year >>

   
 
Logistics software, 3PL and transportation stocks had more of a mixed week with Manhattan, Vastera, Prologix and Symbol falling slightly,  while UPS, FedEx, Descartes, Yellow Roadway, Ryder and JB Hunt found positive territory.
 

Click here to see performance over the past week, month, quarter and year >>

 

About what percent of total employee headcount does the average company have in IT-related personnel?

Answer below

Agree or Disagree?  Have a Perspective to Share with Your Peers?

Reader feedback from the topics in SupplyChainDigest is growing every week!  Keep the comments coming!

If you would like to keep your identity or company anonymous, please let us know in your response.

 

Feedback last week was moderate, as we looked at the parallels between the emerging retail RFID compliance wave and previous compliance mandates for bar coding and EDI. Our Feedback of the Week though comes from David Schneider of Pep Boys, who provides a delayed but excellent response to our articles about integrating transportation management systems with WMS and supply chain planning systems.

 

For more complete comments from readers, click here.

Keep the dialog going! Give us your thoughts on this week's Supply Chain topics.

feedback@scdigest.com.

 

 

NEWS AND VIEWS

AMR/NRF Study Finds Retail IT Spending to Increase 9.1% in 2004

AMR announced preliminary results from its joint research with the National Retail Federation (NRF) on IT spending plans by retailers for 2004. It was based on a detailed survey of the IT budgets of 27 retailers, which as a group, averaged $6.8 billion in sales and a $219 million IT budget in 2003. The full report will be available in April to AMR and NRF members, though it's usually not too hard to get your hands on one if you don't fall into either of these categories. Highlights of the ""pre-release" of the data include:

Respondents planned bigger increases in IT spending than most other reports have predicted. The AMR data showed respondents planned a 9.1% increase in overall IT spending, and a whopping 27.3% increase in capital spending.
The greatest increase in spending will be directed towards in-store systems, especially those which enhance the customer experience. Growth in store-focused IT capital spending are expected to increase 57% in 2004, and include such priorities as new POS systems, increased deployment or upgrade of mobile devices in the store, and advanced selling systems (kiosks, self-check out, etc.). Some of this growth is coming from "catch-up" of store-level investments planned but not made over the past two years.
The respondents did not have aggressive plans for traditional supply chain systems, such as inventory planning, replenishment, warehouse management, and transportation management, with single digit percentages planning to either deploy such capabilities for the first time or replace existing systems. There was more interest in "retail planning systems", with 19% expecting to replace existing systems, but I am not sure what this category really means. 11% of respondents expect to purchase price management solutions for the first time.
Continuing the move towards open systems, 52% have deployed Linux-based applications in production environments.

Key Takeaway: While retailers are certainly interested in the supply chain, in the end they are merchants, so the focus on in-store investments shouldn't be unexpected. I was a little surprised, however, in the low level of planned investment in replenishment systems, since that's really the key to reducing out of stocks and total inventories, and transportation management, since I believe the vast majority of retailers have significant opportunities in this area.

If you are a retailer, are your spending plans in line with these results (we'll keep your response confidential if you request)? Should retailers be investing more in supply chain systems versus the huge preponderance focused on in-store? Let us know your thoughts.

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First Place to Use RFID is On Expensive Items, Says CEO of Philips Semiconductors

View full article>>

There was a decent interview last week on RFID in Business Week magazine with Scott McGregor, CEO of Philips Semiconductors.

First, the good: McGregor notes that we still have a long way to go before we see mass use of RFID tags on commodity items the way we use them on bar codes. He's quoted as saying, "If you're tagging low-cost commodity products, RFID tags need to approach the cost of bar codes (they now cost at least 20 times as much). But for higher-priced or brand-specific articles, there's a lot of value in RFID for manufacturers. It can work as a proof of authenticity."

Then the bad: McGregor then says, "But if you want to tag a can of soup, you need to get the price down to less than a dime." Now please, let's get this right - the cost of a UPC bar code on a can of soup is basically nothing - its just printed as part of the packaging. For most items, except high value goods, RFID at the item level won't work until the tag cost is also basically zero - "printed" using one of the emerging technologies a variety of companies are working on. A ten-cent tag, or even a two-cent tag, on a can of soup? Get real.

McGregor then notes a variety of developing and very interesting uses of tags outside of the CPG-retail world that's currently getting all the recent attention. This includes replacement of magnetic stripes on credit cards with chips, replacement of physical credit cards themselves with chips in cell phones, items and things with tags all talking to other things with tags - e.g., wave a tagged business card in front of your cell phone/PDA and the contact info is instantly entered, for example. Who needs those little business card reader machines that don't work so well?

Key Takeway: I think McGregor is right that there is a lot we could be doing right now with RFID for tracking and authentication of expensive goods, but the only real action in this area right now seems to be in pharmaceuticals. Lots of opportunity elsewhere, it seems. The RFID "technologist" positions that are being created in many companies also need to be looking at the many non-traditional supply chain applications that are emerging, or being discussed, as they might both impact the company's operations or trigger other ideas for supply chain use.

Does tracking and authentication of high value goods provide the nearest term ROI from RFID? Does anyone else think an item-level tag has to be basically free before broad use for low-cost consumer goods? Let us know your thoughts.


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Allen-Edmonds Uses Lean Principles, Automation, to Keep Production in U.S.

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Shoes manufacturing is probably the poster-child industry for the practice of offshore manufacturing. Nearly all U.S. shoe production left for offshore many years ago, and Nike and its overseas plants became targets of protest by union leaders, Doonsbury, and many other sources.

 

So it's interesting to see this story on how Allen-Edmonds, a maker of high-end men's and women's shoes, took a look at the offshore option and decided the best option was to keep manufacturing at home. The key was implementation of basic lean principles, based on something called the Toyota Sewing System, an offshoot of the Toyota Manufacturing System, made famous of course in the automotive industry.

 

The article in Managing Automation notes " The foundation of the model is a just-in-time design that has man and machine working together to make just what is needed, when it is needed, in the right amount. It emphasizes the elimination of waste (anything not valuable to the process), and the streamlining of production flow. More importantly, this model does not jeopardize quality, as it allows operators the ability to detect and isolate abnormal conditions as they occur."

 

This is actually the third phase of implementing these principles within Allen-Edmonds, and the first two phases each delivered productivity gains of about 30%. Expectations from this third initiative being implemented in the company's finishing plant are that productivity will increase 15-25% in six months.

 

Key Takeaway: There is no question that it appears many supply chain principles are thrown out the window in many offshoring efforts that look only at per unit costs. It's good to see a company looking first how internal improvements can both reduce time and add the flexibility and responsiveness that offshoring makes tough. In fairness, though, Allen-Edmonds sells a high-end product that puts some floor on price pressure that more middle market products don't enjoy.

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FEEDBACK DETAIL:

Feedback of the week - on Integrating TMS with WMS and SCP systems:

 .... but waiting until now gave me a chance to see what people had to say. That viewpoint echoes something that I have been saying about TMS, WMS, Order Management, and many other Supply Chain systems. It is all integrated, and the integration is different for every company, industry, and region.

 

Speaking from what I see for the logistics for an "A" level retailer, Demand Forecasting, PO Creation, Inbound TMS, EDI, Store Order Management, WMS and TMS all have to have some sort of integration layer. Does Demand Planning and Forecasting have to integrate with the outbound TMS? No, but it should integrate with the inbound TMS functions for strategic/tactical planning and cost analysis. Does PO Creation have to Integrate with Store Order Management? No, but store-order processing data, better feed back into the Demand Forecasting. So the decision that has to be made is do you create direct link connections between each application, or do you create a "data bus" layer that carries the data for integration to all applications, and only the information needed from the bus is dropped into the application(s).

 

One of the real stinky challenges that we have is that we use the contract dedicated fleets that deliver to our stores for vendor backhauls. The question is should that process be controlled by the inbound or outbound TMS? The process is an inbound function, but because we want to use the available capacity in the outbound fleet to bring goods back to the servicing DC, the function really lives in the outbound TMS. Now, lets introduce another layer of complexity, where I want to pick up all PO's for all Distribution Centers as a backhaul pickup, processing the other DC freight into TL consolidation for shipment. Today we make a static decision to route a vendor in a fixed method (this vendor is a x-dock consol vendor) and make changes when the vendor has more than 3/4 of a TL to go to another DC. At best - reactive.

 

Anyway you look at the problem, you come back to a strong need for an integrated solution. If you do not see the need for integration, you either have a very simple supply chain to manage, or have not looked at the problem long enough, or both. Because of the wide variety of

WMS/TMS/OM/SCM needs and processes created by all of the diversity of business structures out there, I doubt that there will ever be enough "critical mass" for a software vendor to create a truly integrated platform. So what the IT folks of each trading partner will need to do is create that integration layer I speak about, both for the internal systems and with the external systems. The EDI protocols that are out there are the first steps of defining that external integration level, and can be used to create the internal layers that are needed.

 

Three years ago when I was first thinking of an integrated DF/TMS/OM/WMS/TMS process I thought about the number of vendors that were EDI capable and the ones that were not. I was about ready to turn my back on EDI when the EDI manager of one of our key LTL carriers made the blunt statement to me that IF I wanted the carriers to "play my game" that I needed to stick with the EDI protocols. Her point was that the carriers have made a significant investment into EDI, and that while some players are able to do more, that they all can do EDI. To do something

"non-standard" would not be supported by many of the carriers.

 

Some solutions out there for Inbound TMS use a web site for the vendor to enter the PO and pickup information. Great for the vendors that are not EDI, but what about the vendors that are EDI? If you do not have the ability to integrate that EDI information, then you are missing the boat.

 

David Schneider

Pep Boys

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More on RFID compliance parallels:

 

The SSCC 18 or more commonly known as UCC-128 shipping label is a compliant label - as long as the Vendor Relations department of a retailer feels it meets its needs.

It is a voluntary standard which changes by retailer / by division (in some cases) but is guarantied to change without notice once a year. Many companies are paying tens of thousands of dollars a "month" in charge backs because they cannot keep up with the changes or it is impossible to make them.

I hope that RFID formatting is a mandatory standard and all industries comply without variance.

Dan Castiglione

Carters

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On "High price of doing business in China":

 

The article on the cost of doing business with China had an outstanding message. I ran into this problem 15 years ago when we were opening up a JV in Beijing for imaging products manufacture. The Chinese really restricted us at that time to have 80% local manufacture. This ultimately had to include some high technology content. In that case it was for sale of product within their own country. They are all about gaining control of product know-how. They aren't going to be content with just doing the machining.

Excellent analogy to Japan's practice much earlier.

I think the problem is that there is so much pressure to compete with lower production costs, seize the present cost advantage, that US companies don't have the backbone to "just say no" to giving away the intellectual capital that will ultimately haunt them downstream. We shouldn't assume that the Chinese won't eventually begin to produce competitive state-of-the-art solutions themselves. They are quite capable of becoming innovative.

Erv Bluemner

RedPrairie

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SUPPLY CHAIN TRIVIA

Q.

About what percent of total employee headcount does the average company have in IT-related personnel?

A.

The average company has 5-7% of its total employees in IT, according to a recent report from Gartner. Is your company's percentage higher or lower?

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