Last week, SCDigest editor Dan Gilmore highlighted supply chain predictions for 2014 from a number of supply chain gurus. You can find that column here: Supply Chain Guru Predictions for 2015.

As promised then, we are also offering the full text comments from each of our gurus.

This week, here are the full text predictions from pundits Gene Tyndall, Mike Regan, George Stalk, Marc Wulfraat, David Schneider, and Chris Gopal. Good stuff.

Next week in Gilmore's First Thoughts column we are going to highlight a few predictions from leading supply chain analysts.

So let's get right to it, starting with Mike Regan.

Predictions on Logistics

Mike Regan, TranzAct Technologies

Thanks for giving me another opportunity to be part of the Gilmore supply chain prediction team for 2015.

Building upon your "Supply Chain Storm" scenario, for 2015, here are our fearsome predictions. These are issues that will directly impact freight pricing structures.

First, shippers will continue to see tight capacity:

For the past couple of years we have predicted that if annual GDP growth was at 2.5% or higher, shippers would have an increasingly difficult time sourcing capacity. Now that a strong third and fourth quarter has become a reality (with 5% GDP growth in the fourth quarter alone) we are predicting a sellers market for trucking companies in 2015. Practically speaking, the carriers are using technology and common sense and are getting much better at managing their assets and this means they can and will be more selective in working with shippers and third parties.

Second, tight capacity will result in higher rates in the TL and LTL sectors and force shippers to reevaluate their negotiating strategies within their core carrier network:

Savvy shippers will be focused on working with their core carrier to lock in capacity at predictable prices versus selecting the carriers with the lowest possible rates. Overall, expect carriers to be more aggressive in using their pricing power to cull, or get rid of the least profitable freight and replace it with higher yielding shipments with better margins. One other important note. With declining fuel prices, carriers will take advantage of declingin fuel surcharges and be more aggressive in seeking rate increases. For example, in fuel surcharges are 5% lower, shippers should not be surprised if the carriers look to take 3% of that 5% (or approximately 680% of the surcharge) in their rate increase. Overall look for TL rate increases of 5% to 7%.

Third, LTL carriers will move away from the traditional classification system as they focus on dimensional freight issues in their pricing programs:

As more LTL carriers utilize technology and "dimensionalizers" to determine how much space every shipment is taking, the National Motor freight Classification System (or "NMFC") will become less important. LTL carriers want to be compensated for the size and weight of your shipments and will therefore scrutinize FAK based rate structures to make sure that they accurately reflect the material being shipped. Add it all up and shippers could see LTL freight rates increase of 4% to 6% or more - especially for minimum charge shipments. As noted above, with the decline in fuel prices, the good news is that with lower fuel surcharges, shippers actual freight costs may increase by only 3% to 4%. If diesel prices rebound, all bets are off.

Our fourth (and final) prediction is that C-Suite executives will be paying more attention to what is happening with their transportation and freight costs.

Like it or not, for several years, C-Suite executives have viewed transportation as a "necessary evil." As long as freight costs stayed within budget, these C-Suite executives accepted the status quo. 2014, or more specifically the first and fourth quarters of 2014, changed all that. Blown budgets, missed shipments and premium freight costs caused more CEO's and Presidents to look at freight costs and ask: Why is it so difficult to find trucks? And why are we paying much higher rates for these trucks? Add it all up and transportation and logistics professionals can expect more moments in the "corporate spotlight" as these C-Suite executives look for alternatives and strategies to manage and reduce costs.

Predictions for Supply Chain Strategy

Gene Tyndall, Tompkins International

I am pleased again this year to offer my predictions for Supply Chains in 2015.

Just to note in passing, each of my 5 predictions for last year - four focused on the Customer and their experience ("Year of the Customer"), and 1 on Operations Strategy - have had some degree of impact during last year, especially with regard to Omni-channel Operations. Many companies have pursued new strategies for these, and are continuing to invest in new Initiatives that get them better positioned to deal with either B2C, or B2B, or in some instances, both. The Supply Chain Transformations required, however, have been challenging and time-consuming; but, it is more common this year that business leaders realize the importance. The 2014 "Year of the Customer" is far from over, and will continue throughout 2015.

For 2015, however, I will offer the positioning of other issues and initiatives that will require Supply Chain leadership and commitment. My "Big 5" for this year are as follows:

1. Let's start this year with Technology, which continues to develop and in novate faster than supply chain managers can absorb. The big prediction here is that Cloud-computing will "go mainstream." The speed to execution, lower costs, higher service levels, and preservation of capital related to Cloud-based apps is so compelling that companies will continue to take this path. While the ERP-backbones are likely to remain in place as assets, the wide variety of Cloud Apps as "bolt-ons", or "point solutions", will expand, especially for those that are for decision support. This means that supply chain managers must keep up with innovations in technologies, and make sure that the Business Processes, and People, are ready for them.

2. The most challenging Process for supply chains and companies - S&OP - will continue to be frustrating in many respects. The technical methods for demand (sales) forecasting are difficult enough; the cultural processes for getting corporate units to come together for consensus forecasts (Demand Plans) and sourcing (Supply Plans) that align, match, and make efficient the Integrated Business Plan, are true barriers. If we cannot forecast sales accurately enough, how can we balance supply and demand in any optimal manner? The addition of sales channels, the proliferation of SKU's, and the expansion of markets and customer demographics, are just too overwhelming. And, corporate cultures often work against consensus, so that agreement is hard to reach. I do not know any company that believes their S&OP Process is working optimally. The "best" at this believe their processes and disciplines are productive, and their managers collaborate effectively, but they acknowledge their results remain less than expected - either safety stocks are too high, or out-of-stocks too frequent, or customer service levels, are too low. All have serious ramifications.

3. My prediction last year for more attention on the CSCO agendas on "Operations Strategy" deserves another prediction this year. While some leading companies have made progress defining a more progressive Operations Strategy, with the Capabilities aligned tightly with business goals and objectives, the majority of supply chain leaders are not focused on building the precise capabilities that an Operations Strategy calls for. Consequently, investments are not tied directly with business value statements, are not necessarily what is needed to compete, or do not satisfy customers as well as their own cost controls. Network Designs, without being driven by the right Strategies, end up as cost optimizers, and not profitable growth machines. The new supply chain thinking remains as talking points and not business value creators.

4. Risk Management will take on even more importance in 2015. While this has been a prediction earlier, it continues as a major issue and has intensified in 2014, due to Labor Actions at Ports, weather emergencies, socio-political events and terrorist threats, and the increasing complexity and volatility of global supply chains - including sourcing expansions into risky geographies. Sourcing finished goods is one thing, but sourcing materials and components often requires unusual supplier agreements that have imbedded risks. The trends toward "nearshoring" have had some beneficial risk mitigation; however, the vast majority of sourcing remains global and requires high levels of monitoring and mitigation strategies.

Thus, I see more attention centered on end-to-end supply chain visibility, coupled with new Risk mitigation analyses and strategies on executive agendas in 2015. The true end-to-end supply chains start with suppliers' suppliers and end with customers' customers. Risk Management requires more than "where are my shipments, when will we receive them, and what if we do not?".

5. Last, but far from least, is the issue of cross-channel order fulfillment. Last year I predicted that 2014 would be the year of "customer personalization", as e-Commerce would continue to expand in all industries. While that did receive significant attention by supply chain leaders, the growth in B2C and B2B continues and is focusing unprecedented pressure on supply chains to keep up. The term "onmichannel" is giving away to "cross-channel", because all businesses - not just Retailers - are dealing with Internet orders and fulfillment. Whereas it gets less publicity, B2B is larger than B2C, and involves every business, regardless of industry segment. My prediction is that each business will keep this issue on its executive agenda, and we will see new Distribution Networks, new customer strategies, and new product flows in order to satisfy the need for cross-channel fulfillment operations.

I hope these "top 5" predictions for Supply Chain Management help leaders prepare for and respond better in 2015. As we pointed out last year, unless leaders anticipate the needs and plan for them, "fighting fires" becomes the norm. This situation invariably impacts customers negatively and will quite possibly destroy value in the company.

Predictions for Supply Chain Trends

George Stalk, Boston Consulting Group

The supply chain has always been a key but often underappreciated element of a company's strategy. Today, very often the supply chain is critical to the success of the company. The rise of its importance is being driven by several powerful and evolving business environmental trends.

The emergence of the "two speed world" requires innovations in supply chains. The explosive growth of the middle class and the rise of new, large cities in developing economies place new demands on supply chains. For example, China has 90 cities with middle class populations of more than 250,000. By 2020 this number will grow to more than 280 cities - each needing to be supplied. New supply chains must be built to serve slower growing, developed economies and fast growing ones.

Increasing congestion is changing everything we think we know about supply chains. Congestion is dramatically affecting the economics of competition. Congestion slows down the flow of goods through the supply chain. Congestion increases the variability of supply chain performance. Congestion can drive over and under stocks. Congestion is rendering the "footprints" of the supply chains of many firms obsolete. After almost two decades of the migration of low cost manufacturing from North America to Asia manufacturers are returning. The costs of extended supply chains, particularly indirect costs that are being driven by the effects of congestion, are making local sourcing increasingly attractive

Increasing volatility is adding a new and very important dimension to supply chain management. The volatility of everything is increasing placing new demands on supply chain executives. As the input costs of oil and food stuffs varies dramatically the supply chain that is the fastest is the least affected by volatility and the most competitive.

Deep collaboration is today's supply organization opportunity for greater effectiveness and efficiency. But executives need to go far beyond the buzz words to realize material gains.

Collaboration for most executives means closer interactions of their supply chains with those of their suppliers and customers. For a few leading edge companies, deep collaboration can be seen to mean establishing close interactions throughout your relevant supply chains - at least those of your suppliers' suppliers and your customers' customers. For some companies with global supply chains such as Canadian Tire the interactions are global.

Deep collaboration results in faster supply chains that are less affected by congestion and volatility resulting in lower overall cost (high double digit percentage reductions).

The emergence of the "two speed world", increasing congestion, and increasing volatility are problems and challenges for all companies. If you and your competitors respond in similar ways including not responding at all there are no competitive risks to you. However, if one chooses to respond including pursuing deep collaboration and the others do not significant competitive advantages are possible. If you choose to respond you must change your business model of today. You must make your supply chain competitively and strategically advantaged or a competitor will do it for you.

(Supply Chain Trends and Issues Article - Continued Below)