A growing number of supply chain and logisitcs professionals are now aware of "Peak Oil" theory, started by the work of Shell oil engineer M. King Hubbert, who in the 1940s predicted that output of oil in the lower 48 states in the US would peak in the 1970s - a projection that turned out to be spot on 30 years later.

Othesr jumped on the concept to predict a top for global oil output, with many in the 1990s saying that world oil production would peak in about 2008.

That year has come and gone, and it appears we aren't quite there yet - but the day may be rapidly approaching, with dire consequences for oil prices and thus supply chain costs.

The graphic below was taken from a report written in 2004 that showed previous predictions for the world oil peak in 2008, and then a new prediction the peak would come more like a decade later, according to researchers at Guinness Atkinson, an investment firm. As can be seen, the earlier reports predicted a peak even for Middle East oil putput right about now.

This week, another industry analyst, Charles Maxwell of Weeden & Co. said the globe will reach Peak Oil production sometime between 2015 and 2010. He believes this will lead to a rise in the price of a barrel of oil to something like $150.00 in four years, and then $300 per barrel by the end of the decade.

Is he right? Get ready for a wild ride. (See Green Supply Chain News: World Peak Oil to Hit in 5-10 Years, Industry Analyst Says.)

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