Short and sweet today, but what is happening with oil and other commodity prices is simply staggering.
Oiil at $144 per barrel in July, and in October it is briefly cut in half, to $72 per barrel. Though its gone back up a bit, some are predicting a return to $50-60 per barrel, though I doubt it.
The same with metals and many other commodities. Copper is also down 50% from its highs in the summer, as are other metals.
If you are a buyer or a consumer, this is mostly great news, especally after three years of relentless upward commodity and derivative product pressures that ate into personal wallets and corporate bottom lines. But it's also enough to make your head spin.
I talked a couple of weeks ago about the need for supply chain flexibility, but that is on steroids now. You need near real-time agility to make optimal trade-off decisions almost daily. Your beginning 2008 strategies and even mid-year corrections probably need drastic revision right now.
For this week and maybe a few more, the cost of money is high and the cost of transport has or should drop (be checking those fuel surcharges). That means cut back inventories at the price of additional transportation miles, versus where you were at just a month or so ago.
Should you load up on commodity inventories or lock up very favorable contracts with suppliers right now? Everyone's situation is different, but it is certainly worth taking a hard look at.
The bottom line - right now, every day is different. Act accordingly.
I’d love your thoughts on this.
|