September 23, 2004

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Ariba lead the pack, over the past week, up $1.48 per share. Oracle, gaining $1.05 per share, is up just over 10% from the previous week. Aspentech's $.81 per share gain secures third place for the week. With a stock price of $3.95 one year ago, Aspentech has increased it's value by more than 82% over the past year.

Transportation and 3PL Providers, FedEx and Ryder gained more than $2.00 for the week, UPS followed with a $1.27 per share gain. Symbol gave back $.98 of last week's gain. The other stocks posting losses are Descartes, YellowRoadway and JB Hunt.

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Dan Gilmore
Editor-in-Chief

Does Customer Service Mean Customer Satisfaction?

I spent the last weekend reading The Supply Chain Handbook, a new book from Tompkins Associates that brings together almost two dozen industry thought leaders who address an incredibly wide range of supply chain topics.

It’s a book that should have a place on every supply chain and logistics manager’s shelf (more on that in a bit), but one thing that especially intrigued me was a chapter by Tompkins Associates president Dr. Jim Tompkins on customer satisfaction.

The chapter starts with the simple but powerful principle that “Customer satisfaction is the measure of a supply chain’s effectiveness.“ That crisp statement triggered a number of thoughts. For example, while we often have trouble getting executives to really understand the value of supply chain excellence, most of them certainly understand the value of customer satisfaction – is that the framework we should be using to explain how supply chain improvement really drives shareholder value? After all, in the end, even operating cost reductions allow us to lower prices, which is an important component of customer sat.

Dr. Tompkins then offers a simple formula for understanding customer satisfaction: Customer satisfaction simply equals a customer’s perception of service minus their expectation of service. Not understanding this formula often leads companies to overly focus on internally generated measures that they think serve as a proxy for customer satisfaction, but may not really reflect it.

The book notes: “There is often a major disconnect between internally measured customer service performance and actual customer satisfaction. KPIs are important, but meeting them does not necessarily mean that customers are satisfied. Customers base their satisfaction on how easy it is to conduct business, taking into account such factors as quality of information available, consistency of receipt timing, and others.“ It cites a few examples of real companies that were hitting customer service goals but in fact were experiencing unsatisfied customers. And I loved the anecdote about the grocery chain that invested in a lot of express lines to speed small item purchases, while the customers buying full shopping carts and who really drove the chains’ profits had their wait times increased.

Another challenge for companies in driving customer satisfaction is defining who the customer really is. For many companies, this is not as simple as it might seem. For example, is a beverage company’s customer the distributor it ships to, the retailers the distributor serves, or the end consumer? The real answer is that all of them are customers, and we must organize our supply chain to deliver customer satisfaction at each level. And for most important operational issues related to that satisfaction, “No one function, department, or company can answer these questions without the help of others.“ That again to me is a simple and effective way to crystallize the need for internal and external collaboration – the customer cannot be satisfied without cooperation and coordination of multiple parties and companies.

These are just a few of the topics you’ll find in The Supply Chain Handbook. It brings together such well-known supply chain experts as Gene Tyndall, Gartner's Andrew White, Ken Ackerman, Paul Bender and others, who contribute individual chapters on topics ranging from CPFR to transportation excellence to handy formulas for calculating how much dock space you require. We recommend it. You can get more information at www.tompkinsinc.com.

Is there a difference between customer service and customer satisfaction? Can focusing too much on internal KPIs alone sometimes lead to problems? Do we think enough about the different tiers of customers our supply chains have to serve? And is focusing on how the supply chain delivers customer satisfaction, the right way to improve executive attention?  Let us know your thoughts.

 

Latest Bear Stearns Shippers Survey


RFID from the CFO Perspective


Who are the Food Service Supply Chain Leaders?

Summary and comment below.

 

Audio Interviews with Leading Supply Chain Experts

Archived Topics:

The Potential for Collaborative Transportation -

  Guest: Bob Shagawat - President, Shippers Commonwealth
 

Getting Started with Network Design Projects

  Guest: Stephen Craig - Principal, CP Consulting
 

A Better Approach to Supply Chain Technology Investment Analysis

  Guest: Doug Hubbard - President, Hubbard Decision Research
 

Collaboration - The Key to Supply Chain Transformation

  Guest: Ralph Drayer - Former Chief Logistics Officer, Procter & Gamble
 
 

The Supply Chain Handbook offers a number of formulas and rules of thumb for calculating various supply chain and logistics requirements. According to the book, at what number of DCs (assuming a single tier network, a fixed level of demand, and all the same DC capacity) will you double the total network inventory versus one central DC?

Answer below

Agree or Disagree? 

Have a Perspective to Share with Your Peers?

Feedback is coming in at a rate greater than we can publish it – thanks for your response.

This week, we’re publishing still more letters on our “Is it a zero-sum game on the revenue side for RFID pieces” – mostly agreeing, but with a couple of dissents. Our Feedback of the Week is from a writer who asked to remain anonymous (you’ll understand why), in a letter that was triggered by that same RFID piece but which ultimately touches on several issues related to the consumer goods-retail supply chain - from someone on the consumer goods side of the equation. We know you will enjoy it! (And yes, praise for our newsletter will get you somewhere!)

For more complete comments from readers, click here.

Keep the dialog going! Give us your thoughts on this week's Supply Chain topics.

feedback@scdigest.com

 

 

NEWS AND VIEWS

Quarterly Shippers Survey Finds Concern about Transportation Capacity, Plans for Technology Investment

View Full Article >>

Bear Stearns recently released its always-interesting quarterly shippers survey, based on responses from more than 100 companies across a very wide range of issues. It's worth taking a look at to get a pulse of what your peers are thinking, especially in the area of transportation � and you can get a feel for what transportation and supply chain stocks Bear Stearns is recommending at the same time.

Highlights of this quarter's report include:

Carrier capacity remains tight. The report says shipper perceptions of capacity constraints are the highest in the seven years of the survey. While there is concern around both truckload and LTL markets, the expectations for continued tightness is much greater for truckload moves.

Shippers expect this supply-demand situation to result in increases in truckload rates of 2.7% and LTL rate increases of 2.3% over the next 12 months.

80% of respondents reporting some increases in freight rates or accessorial charges due to new hours of service rules, though most felt the impact was mitigated by efficient dock processes and contractual protections.

These and other factors are causing shippers to try and expand their carrier bases by adding small carriers, in part also because they felt smaller carriers would be less successful in adding on HOS-related charges.

Shippers are continuing to see deterioration in rail service, as crew and locomotive shortages (driven in part by increasing volumes) cause problems. This was the seventh consecutive quarterly fall off in rail service perceptions.
Nonetheless, modest movement of freight volumes from truckload to rail was expected to continue.
Despite some growth in demand, most companies are not adding to inventories, which continue to tighten versus demand.

There is a variety of other data in the report that you might find worth reviewing.

The most interesting thing to me about this data is the move towards expanding the carrier base by many shippers as a result of the capacity squeeze. This of course is contrary to the trend of many shippers over the past few years, many of whom have embraced core carrier programs and other initiatives to reduce the number of carriers � often dramatically.

Do you think the tightening capacity in the trucking industry will cause shippers to expand their carrier bases and embrace again many more small carriers? What will be other impacts of the driver and equipment shortage? Let us know your thoughts.


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CFO Article Sees Long-term Promise but Short-term Challenges from RFID

View Full Article >>

Article in the most recent issue of CFO magazine on RFID. Although well-written, as is typical with CFO pieces, there’s not a lot new here, but think its good for all of us to know what the CFO is reading about RFID technology.

In summary (surprise, surprise): over the long-term, RFID will deliver real value and change the way supply chains work, but has significant technical and ROI problems over the next few years.

The article quotes the seemingly omni-present Simon Ellis of Unilever on the inherent advantages of RFID technology over bar codes: "There are substantive challenges ahead," says Ellis, "but RFID is fundamentally better than bar codes." For example, "Managing space will be a much different proposition if you can ID cases from 20 feet away."

Of course, currently the challenge is to get RFID to work from 20 inches, let alone 20 feet. Ellis also states Unilever has "fiddled with the stuff, but so far, the experience has been a little underwhelming."

Add that to the current cost of tag and other technology requirements to make RFID work, and ROI would seem pretty elusive for now. The article quotes Lyle Ginsburg from Accenture as saying he tells clients "the costs are too high, performance isn't there yet, the business case is bad, China is threatening its own standard, and the public perceives tags as spy chips — you know, the mark of the devil." The article also includes a chart from AMR Research estimating the costs of compliance for a typical consumer goods manufacturer, shown below.

The Price of Tagging
What a consumer products company shipping 50 million cases a
year might spend for RFID implementation (in millions).
Tags and readers $5-$10
System integration $3-$5
Changes to existing supply-chain applications $3-$5
Data storage and analytics $2-$3
Total $13-$23

Source: AMR Research

On the other hand, I didn’t realize the level at which the airline industry is pursuing RFID–based systems to improve baggage handling. The article provides some details on efforts at both Delta airlines and the Las Vegas airport that have involved a lot of learning about how the stuff works that will be part of the cumulative knowledge base that will ultimately help move RFID maturity along. But the Delta project, for example, will cost $25 million, and won’t be fully deployed until 2007.

The bottom line: don’t expect your CFO to be beating the RFID drum any time real soon. We do seem to be moving from the hype phase of RFID to a much more realistic appraisal of where the technology and value is really at – if it just wasn’t for this pesky Wal-Mart thing….

Do you think the market is moving from hype to reality about the costs and benefits of RFID? How can we possibly reconcile the kinds of cost and performance problems we will have for some time with Wal-Mart’s continued compliance push? Let us know your thoughts.

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Survey Ranks Leaders in Food Service Industry � Manufacturers and Operators

View Full Article >>

The researchers at Cannondale Associates recently released one of their studies ranking perceptions of excellence and leadership in the food service industry (restaurants, food distribution, etc.). The researchers surveyed a large number of both suppliers and food service providers across several important attributes, including supply chain excellence but also a variety of other business variables.

According to food service respondents, the vendors with the best supply chains are:

1. Tyson Foods
2. Coca-Cola
3. Pepsi-Cola
4. General Mills
5. Kraft
6. Frito-Lay
7. Rich's
8. Sara Lee
9. Kellogg's
10. Schwan's

From the manufacturer’s perspective, the food service companies expected to be the power operators over the next 15 years include:

1. McDonald's
2. Wendy's
3. Darden
4. Subway
5. Starbucks
6. Outback Steakhouse
7. Panera Bread Co.
8. Brinker
9. Aramark
10. Sodexo

The above link just takes you to a basic Cannondale page – you have to contact Cannondale for the full report.

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FEEDBACK

Feedback of the Week - On RFID, forecasting, replenishment, and more:


I have been enjoying your e-newsletter for several months now, and would like to thank you for that enjoyment. I applaud your ability to use fewer words, to say more, than any other business publication I have seen.

I would like to add a few comments to some long-running discussion threads, but must request that you do not make my name public as I suspect that the company that employs me as a production planner would not agree with all of these.

What prompted me to write at this particular time was your recent column questioning whether or not the employment of RFID would increase revenues for manufacturers. You were dead on: when I can't find the brand I am looking for, I will most likely buy another brand at the same store. Who has time (or, considering the cost of gasoline, money) to be driving all over town looking for a tube of toothpaste? The value doesn't justify the investment. But when I do see empty shelves at my local Long's, I don't wonder, “gee, why don't they invest in RFID?'” I reflect, rather, that other factors are at work in making my preferred item unavailable to me.

Most organizations focus their cost-reduction efforts, as another of your correspondent observes, on reducing staff. The local Long's does not employ a person whose responsibility it is to perform continuous replenishment. This could be as low-tech as circulating through the store and making sure that the shelves stay stocked. Gelson's does this, but that is another business model altogether. (More on that later.) Rite Aid is so bad at replenishment that I no longer shop in their stores; the odds that I won't find what I want are too high.

Absent an extra stocking clerk, the store continuously collects information electronically as to what customers are buying. To judge from my Long's receipt, they keep this information in some detail. I don't see their using this information to make a connection between the supply planner having brought in X cases and the store having sold all X. If they don't use this information now, what makes us think that they will use it just because the collection method is different?

Some supply planner, somewhere in the organization, decided to send that store X number of cases of my brand of toothpaste. The store could have sold X + 50. The planner's decision was based on...a forecast, probably? And yet no organization has made it a priority to improve its demand planning. I know that in my own organization, the sales force is rarely held responsible for its failure to add market intelligence to the statistical forecast. Of course, we are also at fault for not integrating our promotions-management system with our demand planning one. But either way, we have made no commitment to improving the reliability of our forecast.

I don't mean to sound anti-technology; certainly it has made our lives easier, our workplaces more efficient, in any number of ways. It's just that I hate to see money ill-spent. (Fifteen years of continuous cost-reduction programs will do that to you.) In the case of RFID technology, we see organizations apparently willing to put themselves at serious financial risk rather than displease Wal*Mart. I am not a believer in Wal*Mart's business model. I think that in the long run it reduces the choices I have as a consumer, because it presupposes that the only criterion is price---- and by price I mean the short-term 'per-unit' concept of price. If I can spend $30 on a set of food-storage containers that will last five years, why should I spend $7 on a set that won't last one? Granted, I have the $30 now, and I acknowledge that other people have only the $7. Part of why those people have only the $7 is that they are employed by Wal*Mart.

As a consumer, I want to be the one to make that choice; not to have it taken away from me by the proverbial 900-pound gorilla. I choose to have a more pleasant shopping experience than Wal*Mart offers. I choose to value quality over per-unit price. I choose to look at the long-term implications of my acts as a consumer. I want to retain the right to choose. I don't think I am alone in this regard--- witness the success of Trader Joe's, whose business model is the exact opposite.

Thanks again for a really, really good newsletter.

Name withheld by request

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On RFID and zero-sum revenue growth:

I don't buy the argument that it's real lost sales. The consumer still only has so much money to spend. I don't believe there are numbers out there, which show the consumer has all this "extra" money to spend on other things, or save, or invest, because the product he/she went to purchase was out of stock. Of course this is only some off the cuff thoughts. I wish I had time to really research it.

Steve Feller CPIM
Columbia Sporstwear


Right on Dan. Glad to hear a clear voice through the hype. But the real issue is how important is it to keep customers? If a stock out causes the customer to buy someone else's product, does the original supplier lose the customer for life and hence the entire customer profit flow, or only for that single transaction? If the former case, RFID is well worth the cost, but for the later, does the total cost of RFID on every unit, plus capital investment justify the lost profit on a group of single transactions per unit time? What most retailers have learned is that brands are sticky and promotions work only for the duration of the promotion. So with this as precedent, I think your zero sum analogy is probably correct.

However, it does really beg the question of RFID, smart shelves and promotion management, but I am sure we will hear your views on that in another issue.

David A. March
Catalyst International, Inc.




If there are no stockouts then there will be real savings. I don't have to drive around looking for alternatives, so save gas, auto wear and tear, and time. If I know the product I want is certain to be in stock, I am more likely to make that trip to get it than if I don't. If I and everyone else visit fewer stores because we find what we want the first time, fewer sales clerks will be needed.

There's more to this than just shuffling profits around.

The point is that if the buying process can be made more efficient, then more money will be spent at the retail level.

Richard Rix



You are RIGHT ON with the consumer demand statement. RFID doesn't create demand, just might shift a small amount of market share from a non-RFID retailer to an RFID retailer. For companies that have extremely high inventory accuracy already, RFID will have minimal benefits in the near future.


Roger Reimink
Perrigo



Finally, someone else gets it. We don't spend any more unless we have more. It matters almost not at all whether the product is on the first shelf we look or not. In Wal-Mart's case (the early adopter) they may see most of the short-term benefit in market share. That may result in a long-term improvement for them. "They ALWAYS have what I need."

Other retailers will be forced to "me too" in order to survive. However, the CPG companies will see little, if any, top line improvement since their products are readily available at other locations.

For most suppliers to the major retailers, the use of available information from current technologies (bar codes, ASN's, WMS's) has not come close to its potential. The marginal increase in information from RFID (unit level serialization, non-line of site scanning, etc.) will represent a smaller benefit than squeezing the available juice out of current technologies for most companies.

Dan M. Starovasnik
Peach State Integrated Technologies



This is an excellent point relative to the potential true revenue loss associated with stock outs at POS. To the store, as long as the customer buys one of their alternative products, it is not a loss but could actually result in a sale with a greater profit percentage. The manufacturer loses out in this instance but how often does a particular manufacturer benefit when a shopper buys their product because their competitor’s product is out of stock. It would not surprise me if all of this comes out even over time.

The real question of ROI justification for RFID is how much real supply chain savings is actually available when a supply chain is already heavily invested in ERP, WMS and bar coding. Our studies have shown that inventory accuracy, inventory levels, and customer order accuracy are already so good that there is little, if any, justification for RFID. All we are doing is adding cost to the consumer when we should be trying to become more competitive in our markets.

RFID like bar coding is nothing more than a data collection method and requires investment in software products to be effective at all. Once you have a supply chain properly integrated and communicating with software the proposed problems that RFID will help correct will already be significantly reduced and the ROI justification as well. I can see RFID pallet tags for variety pallets, but I cannot see case or item level justification.

Herb Minor
ScottTech, LLC


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On managing risks in global sourcing:


Your article prompted me to cite an instance detrimental to offshore sourcing. There are several very large buildings in Chicago that have recently replaced piping at enormous cost. Reliable information indicates one large building is said to have spent $15 million to replace the piping. A building management company told me that they researched the problem since several of their buildings were involved. It seems the pipe was below our ASTM standards.

Does that mean that all pipe made here meets all standards? Perhaps not, but gut feel and experience tells me that it would be a good bet that it was. There are paper certifications (certs without tests). It happens.

It took about 25 years to discover the problem. Hopefully we will have same serious studies much earlier that will allow us to make serious comparisons and quantify them.

You might look at the computer support from Asia. I can tell you personally that at this time it leaves much to be desired and I suspect that it will cost the software companies dearly in sales. Communication is difficult when all parties are fluent in the same language, how much more so when they are not.

Marty Lenow, P.E.

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SUPPLY CHAIN TRIVIA

Q.

The Supply Chain Handbook offers a number of formulas and rules of thumb for calculating various supply chain and logistics requirements. According to the book, at what number of DCs (assuming a single tier network, a fixed level of demand, and all the same DC capacity) will you double the total network inventory versus one central DC?

A.

With the fourth DC, you will double total network inventory.

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