February 17, 2004

Become a Sponsor
Enterprise Logistics Information Technology - by Softeon
Challenging WMS requirements? The industry's richest WMS and logistics software solution is right here.  www.softeon.com
 
 

Download Valuable Content Here

 

Campbell's Case Study

Overview in today's First Thoughts

 

Anatomy of an RFID Pilot

Over 1500 copies downloaded to-date

 

Q&A Documents

From SCDigest's Web Seminars:

"How to Select a WMS"

"How to Select a TMS"

 

SupplyChainDigest’s
Quality Web Seminars

How to Select a WMS

How to Select a TMS

The "No-Spin Zone" -

Only from SC Digest

Did you miss the live events?

View the Archived Recordings On Demand!

If you are evaluating a new WMS or TMS, you will not want to miss these web seminars that will give you the knowledge you need

to do the job right! 

Hear what attendees to the live events are saying:

 
"I found the information presented and the presenters to be excellent. We are in the middle of identifying a new TMS and WMS package for our company and the information in the presentation was a great summary of the steps necessary for a successful project."
  Director of a Major 3PL
 
"The course and contents were very good. I took 3 pages of notes and dot pointed a dozen specific learning's from this class. In fact, I plan on modifying one of the RFP's I just put together."
  Warehouse Manager
Leading CPG manufacturer
 

Download Your "Pay-Per-View" Archived Recording Today!

   

Reader Survey Results

We received 112 responses to our survey questions last week regarding RFID, with interesting results.

 

We asked companies to identify their overall approach to RFID adoption. Results were as follows:

23% Be an industry leader/early adopter
12% Leader/But wait for others to be pioneers
27% Go forward prudently, but cautiously
38% Wait until technology/ benefits are more proven

 While the large percentage that will approach the technology cautiously is not unexpected, the large percentage of those that intend to be leaders is interesting.

 

We also asked what would be the biggest driver of RFID adoption.

50% Customer compliance
42% Internal distribution/ logistics improvement
  4% Closed loop manufacturing systems
  4% Cargo tracking/security

 

Not surprisingly, customer compliance led the results, followed by the related area of internal logistics automation.

SubscribeContact UsSend to a Friend
 

Dan Gilmore
Editor-in-Chief

Campbell Soup Solves Demand Planning Problem

Demand Planning solutions have been around in one form or another for about 20 years, and customer adoption really exploded in the mid-1990s. I've worked with many companies that have achieved huge benefits from implementing demand planning solutions from leading players like Demantra, i2, Logility, Manugistics and others. ERP vendors are increasingly becoming players in this game, and newer entrants like Steelwedge are approaching the demand planning problem from unique angles.

 

Unfortunately though, after an initial jump in forecast accuracy, and substantially improved demand planning processes, results often plateau, with companies still experiencing relatively high levels of forecast inaccuracy. This is especially true in the complex world of consumer packaged goods, which is still characterized by heavy use of trade and in-store promotions, "forward buying" from retailers, and other factors that distort demand and order patterns between CPG manufacturer and retailer, while overall end user demand chugs along rather smoothly.

 

Of course, Continuous Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) was created to solve much of this problem, following the modestly successful Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) initiatives of the early-mid 1990s. While there have been some isolated CPFR successes, it seems we still have a long way to go before we see broad results across the supply chain.

 

The net of all of this is that average forecast accuracy at the SKU/DC/week level for many manufacturers, can consistently be off by 40-50%. The negative impact of this forecast error is well known: customer service problems, excess pipeline inventories, retail stock-outs, and expedited transportation costs.

 

Proctor & Gamble has announced plans to tackle this issue in several ways, including an initiative that will eventually enable it to schedule its plants much more flexibly (see SCDigest archives ). But is an easier fix simply being more intelligent about actual demand and order inflow as they are occurring, rather than basing forecasts primarily off of historical patterns and expected lifts?

 

Talk to demand planners in most consumer goods companies, and they will describe a similar operating process, in which they take the demand planning system forecast, compare it to what else they know (actual orders), add a little intuition, and then adjust the plan. But this "second guessing" and re-adjustment of the forecast is tough to do this well over hundreds or thousands of SKUs.

 

Campbell Soup has found a way to largely solve this problem by combining traditional forecasting processes and technology with a "bolt-on" solution that improves the forecasting result by taking greater consideration of actual order patterns during the forecast period. I first heard the Campbell's story at the Manugistics user conference last fall, and then gained some additional insight from Rob Byrne of Terra Technology, which provided the Campbell's solution.

 

Click here for a summary of the Campbell's solution and results. Here's the bottom line: by adjusting short-term demand forecasts through increased consideration of actual orders, and the inter-relationships between demand in adjacent time periods, Campbell's was able to reduce percentage forecast error from the high 40's to the mid-teens.

What are the keys to improving forecast accuracy? Do we need, as Campbell Soup has done, to consider actual order patterns more clearly in understanding near term demand patterns? Has your company solved the forecast challenge through improved processes or technology?

Let us know your thoughts.

 
 

Wal-Mart CIO Linda Dillman on RFID

The Truth About Supplier Lead Times

Improving Order Management for Complex Engineered Products

Summary and comment below.

   
 

Supply Chain Investment News

The Supply Chain stocks in our index had another mixed week, with no really big moves either up or down.  Aspentech and Agile  were the biggest losers, falling 4.29% and 5.23%, respectively, while i2 reversed a recent slide with a gain of 4.9%. 

 

Click here to see performance over the past week, month, quarter and year >>

   
 
It was also a mixed week for our Logistics software, 3PL and transportation stocks  with the most noticeable moves from FedEx (up 4.20%), Yellow Roadway (up 5.34%), Symbol (down 4.2%) and Vastera (down 9.4%).
 

Click here to see performance over the past week, month, quarter and year >>

 
 
 

The Institute for Supply Management's well-known PMI Index that tracks U.S. manufacturing health is the weighted average of what five economic measures?
Answer below

 
 

Agree or Disagree?  Have a Perspective to Share with Your Peers?

Reader feedback from the topics in these newsletters is what SupplyChainDigest is all about. Give us your thoughts on this week's logistics topics at feedback@scdigest.com.

You will be seeing an increased level of formal and informal market research from SCDigest.

Our reader survey questions this week focus on demand planning and forecasting.  End users only on the questions. Comments welcomed from all (consultants, vendors, etc.).

How satisfied are you with the current accuracy of your demand planning process? 
Not satisfied
Moderately satisfied
Very satisfied

What do you believe is the number 1 opportunity for your company to improve forecast accuracy?

Improve internal demand planning processes
Implement a new demand planning/ forecasting system
Improve the "mathematics" in existing demand planning system
Improve collaboration with customers about expected demand
 

 

NEWS AND VIEWS

Wal-Mart's CIO Talks With Business Week on RFID

View Full Article >>

Wal-Mart's CIO Linda Dillman did a brief Q&A with Business Week magazine on - of course - RFID.

 

No new revelations, but some points worth highlighting:

For Wal-Mart, it's not so much about cost reduction as it is increasing top line through fewer stock outs at store shelf: "Costs savings isn't the primary benefit for us of RFID, keeping goods in stock is. We'll see better tracking and moving of inventory, faster receiving and shipping, improved quality inspection, fewer out-of-stock items resulting in improved shopper satisfaction, greater predictability in product demand, and better value for the shopper as efficiencies occur," says Dillman.
Dillman downplays the amount of investment that will be required of both Wal-Mart and its suppliers for hardware and software enhancements. "The amount of money suppliers will need to spend on RFID technology isn't as big as some people fear. In our stores, we essentially put in a black box that sits at the top of our legacy IT systems and sends us information from the tags. For suppliers, the setup will be similar. RFID also won't lead to a significant change in the amount of data we'll have to deal with -- so it won't, in most cases, require extra spending on basic software and hardware."
RFID technology is evolving rapidly to deal with previously existing challenges. "Only in the past 60 days, researchers have figured out how to tag cases containing liquids. We expect that, by 2006, most of these issues will be past us, and that prices [for RFID] will fall substantially - leading to an explosion in the technology's adoption."

 

The Key Take-Away: Taking all this at its face, it says Wal-Mart will go "slow but steady" in its RFID roll-out. They "hope" to be live with the top 129 suppliers in one market - Dallas - by January 2005. While suppliers need to begin preparing, I think it's good news that this will roll-out in a more measured way, recognizing the need for continued technology advances, and that you have to walk before you can run.

 

Do you think Wal-Mart's RFID roll-out will go fast or slow? Did anything in CIO Dillman's comments surprise you? Let us know your thoughts.

Send an Email

Back to Top

Do You Know Where Your Supplier's Lead Time Data is Coming From?
View full article>>

Interesting article in last month's APICS magazine. Based on years of experience by the author, it suggests that far too often, supplier lead times factored into complex MRP or supply chain planning applications, come from the supplier's sales rep, and may not be accurate.

 

As author Randall Schaefer notes: " We had been working toward Just-in-Time (JIT) manufacturing so our internal lead times were under control. But a handful of purchased components prevented us from meeting our lean targets. We had reacted to these lead times by trying the usual techniques: large safety stocks, vendor stocking programs, consignment inventory, etc. All of them worked well if judged on the criteria of not running out of parts. But none of these techniques were acceptable if compliance to JIT standards was the criteria."

 

Digging into this issue, he found the lead time data in their systems came from the parts buyer, who in turn got it from the vendor's sales rep. So, he "asked the purchasing manager to personally talk to a high-level operations person, at each supplier, and explain our problem with the lead times for these parts. I also asked the purchasing manager to then provide the suppliers with our maximum acceptable lead time, for a target, and to ask the suppliers what they could do. I was surprised when the purchasing manager succeeded in bringing all but four of the parts within the maximum acceptable parameter."

 

Finally, "Purchasing must make acceptance of the maximum allowable lead time a condition for accepting quotes. Period. Don't tolerate whining that this policy restricts purchasing's authority or complaining that low cost suppliers are eliminated. Purchasing's goal should not be to use the low-cost supplier but to use the low-cost supplier that can perform to quality, delivery, price, and lead time standards. Old, favored suppliers whose quotes are no longer accepted will quickly figure out how to synchronize their delivery lead times with your allowable lead times."

 

Key Takeaway: Don't assume your supplier lead times are fixed based on what is "in the system." Having operations work directly with its counterparts at the supplier can often reveal insight or opportunities for both parties.

 

Do companies too often just accept the sales reps' version of lead times? Is this information often dated, or not the true state of affairs? Do you have examples of stories similar to the one above? Let us know your thoughts.


Send an Email

Back to Top

PRTM Has Good Advice for Improving Order Management for Complex Products
View full article>>

Ran across an interesting piece from consultants PRTM on the need for companies manufacturing complex-engineered or configured-to-order products to dramatically improve order management processes.

 

The report cites one company that processes 1000 total orders per year, but 200,000 changes to those orders, as during the long lead times suppliers change parts, customers make changes, the design is altered, etc.

 

These changes are costly - first, the internal overhead to manage the multitude of changes, and the drain on engineering resources. While some think these "change orders" actually increase profits, PRTM suggests they actually drain profit margins. The key is improvement in the entire order management process, which can significantly reduce cycle times and the total cost of managing an order through its lifecycle.

Order management process: Detailed look at current process steps and opportunities to take out time and cost.
Customer order teams: Cross functional teams jointly manage individual customer orders.
Order management governance and measurement: Development and detailed reporting on key order management process metrics, with executive oversight.
Business rules: More rigorous definition of policies regarding pricing, options, configuration, material/component suppliers, etc. to provide a decision framework and internal discipline.
Improve technology: But there are no magic bullets for this problem from existing solutions. Key is avoiding a morass of time and cost when selecting and implementing order management systems in this environment.

 

Key Takeaway: While most complex, engineered products companies would probably agree on the problem, this tends to fall into the "important but not urgent" categories, and never really gets addressed. But there are lots of dollars on the table in terms of both cost reduction and increase market share, for companies that substantially improve order management processes.

 

Does the order management process need to be fixed in most complex, engineered-to-order manufacturers? What are the key barriers to making these improvements? Is lack of the right OMS systems for this market an issue? Let us know your thoughts.

Send an Email

Back to Top
 

 

SUPPLY CHAIN TRIVIA

Q.

The Institute for Supply Management's well-known PMI Index that tracks U.S. manufacturing health is the weighted average of what five economic measures?

A.

The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted composite of these five indicators: (New Orders represents 30%, Production represents 25%, Employment represents 20%, Supplier Deliveries represents 15%, and Inventories represents 10%). Now you know.

Back to Top
about us | contact us | subscribe | sponsor
© Copyright 2004, SupplyChainDigest. All rights reserved.
To unsubscribe click here.