For almost 10 years there has been some debate about terms – a number of pundits and consultants have argued the term “supply chain” was too limited; “value chain” or “demand chain” were the most commonly suggested alternatives.

Well, I think right now that “value chain” is about right – but for very different reasons.

I’m pretty confident that even when we come out of the economic downturn, with maybe the start of that recovery soon and better news by mid-2009, that for many years the product economy will have changed.

Much of what seemed like great stuff to consumers will for several years, I predict, seem like excess. Let’s face it – we had a period of unprecedented affluence, in many cases fueled by equally unprecedented debt levels (home equity loans, credit cards, bond sales to China, etc.), and the good times were rolling.

I think that a certain soberness will return, even after the economy recovers. This current meltdown painfully makes us aware there were excesses everywhere, and we will remember that and pull back from anything that feels like excess for a long time.

So, I would not want to be a luxury goods maker for awhile, unless you can make luxury goods feel more like a good value than an indulgence. It also says, unfortunately, that driving out supply chain costs will be more important than ever, even as the economy recovers, as there will be a strong and persistent consumer and business bias towards value.

I am going to explore this more in a First Thoughts column soon, but I think this is the reality.

I’d love your thoughts on this.